ACC Football Success (Updated)

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/#!/2017/01/why-are-sec-and-acc-win-so-close.html

Why are SEC and ACC win% so close?

If you simply look at non-conference win% for the 2016-17 season, it shows that the ACC barely edged out the SEC for the #1 conference, 75% to 72%. In this case, however, Mark Twain was correct!

When we break down non-conference records into 3 components: vs. All teams, vs. all FBS teams, and vs. P5 teams*, we get a slightly different picture:

Conf	All OOC	vs FBS	vs P5*
ACC	45-14	34-13	18-10
B1G	35-17	30-14	10-11
Pac12	29-13	22-12	12-12
XII	23-13	35-18	11-14
SEC	48-18	16-12	7-8

* for this analysis, we have included Notre Dame and BYU as "power conference" teams, even though they are both independent in football. However, we did not include Army because they are more like a G5 team.

Speaking of "different picture", why don't we graph this thing out?

Conf	Win% vs. P5 +ND +BYU / P5 + G5 (i.e. FBS) / P5+G5+FCS
ACC	PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPGGGGGGFFFFF
B1G	PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGF
Pac12	PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPGGGGGGGGFFFF
XII	PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPGGGGGGGGGGFFFFFFF
SEC	PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGFFFFFFF

Now, do you see what's happening here? The ACC built it's #1 non-conference record almost entirely on P5 opponents, whereas about 1/3 of all SEC wins out of conference came against G5 teams. Yes, Virginia, the SEC got fat on G5 cupcakes! The same could be said of the Big Ten (B1G), though they didn't get quite as fat as the SEC.

NOTE: Talk of FCS opponents is largely a red herring; the fact is, no conference plays enough FCS teams to impact their overall win% all that much. Typically, P5 teams play 1 FCS, and a combination of either 2 or 3 P5 and/or G5 teams.

BOTTOM LINE: It's really quite eye-opening when you come to realize that the two most powerful P5 leagues have built their inflated reputations on the backs of teams from the Sun Belt, C-USA, and MAC. Bowl season merely exposed what anyone could have known if he was only paying attention and not just eating up what the sports media world was feeding him!

Paul Zeise, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
The ACC is the king of college football

___

John Clay, Lexington Herald-Leader
Sorry, SEC, the ACC is the nation’s best college football conference
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Clark Spencer, Miami Herald
ACC dethrones SEC as nation’s top football conference

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Barry Tramel, The Oklahoman
ACC proves to be the toughest conference in 2016

___

Andrea Adelson, ESPN
ACC has reached the mountaintop; now the trick is staying there

Bill Connelly, SBNation
Why the ACC was 2016’s best college football conference

Bud Elliott ‏@TomahawkNation 20m20 minutes ago

Why the ACC was 2016’s best conference http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/12/14249416/college-football-rankings-conferences-2016-acc-sec-big-ten-clemson?utm_campaign=sbnation&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter … via @sbnation

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/12/14249416/college-football-rankings-conferences-2016-acc-sec-big-ten-clemson

Technically, the SEC won again. When all of the drives and plays from the 2016 season were officially added up, the home of It Just Means More still finished No. 1 in average S&P+. Dominant performances by teams like LSU, Florida, and (in the Peach Bowl, at least) Alabama were able to offset the ACC’s overall bowl brilliance.

Going by the SEC’s own bragging bylaws, though — established when the league was winning every national title from 2006-12 and again in 2015 — the title goes to the ACC. Virtual tie goes to the conference with the champ, right? Especially when the Bama Bump is removed? Bonus points for winning both the Heisman and Piesman?

2016 average college football S&P+ ratings

Conference	Avg. S&P+	Rk	Avg. Off. S&P+	Rk	Avg. Def. S&P+	Rk
Conference	Avg. S&P+	Rk	Avg. Off. S&P+	Rk	Avg. Def. S&P+	Rk
SEC	8.91	1	32.6	3	24.0	3
ACC	8.70	2	32.4	4	23.7	2
Big Ten	6.22	3	28.8	6	22.7	1
Pac-12	5.85	4	33.5	2	27.7	4
Big 12	5.61	5	35.4	1	29.8	6
AAC	-1.16	6	28.2	7	29.4	5
MWC	-2.98	7	29.3	5	32.7	8
MAC	-6.15	8	26.9	9	32.7	9
Conf USA	-7.96	9	27.4	8	35.2	10
Sun Belt	-8.29	10	23.5	10	31.5	7

Accordingly, when the 2017 preview series kicks off in a few short weeks, the SEC will once again be the last conference discussed. The trophy will show up any day in the SEC’s Birmingham office, and Alabama can use its No. 1 computer ranking to claim yet another national title if it so chooses. (That was a joke, but ... you never know.)

If we account for the Bama Bump and drop each conference’s highest and lowest teams from the S&P+ rankings, the ACC’s overall quality this year is even clearer:

1. ACC (+8.4)
2. SEC (+7.9)
3. Big Ten (+6.1)
4. Big 12 (+5.8)
5. Pac-12 (+5.6)
6. AAC (-0.5)
7. Mountain West (-3.0)
8. MAC (-6.0)
9. Sun Belt (-7.8)
10. Conference USA (-9.0)

Like the national title game itself, the battle between the ACC and SEC was a tight race, decided by an eyelash one way or the other. That in and of itself is a victory for the league that was far from the front of the pack a year or two ago.

Change in S&P+ from 2014-16

Conference	2014 Avg	2014 Rk	2015 Avg	2015 Rk	2016 Avg	2016 Rk
Conference	2014 Avg	2014 Rk	2015 Avg	2015 Rk	2016 Avg	2016 Rk
SEC	14.5	1	9.9	1	8.9	1
ACC	7.0	3	6.7	4	8.7	2
Big Ten	6.2	5	7.4	2	6.2	3
Pac-12	8.1	2	6.9	3	5.8	4
Big 12	6.9	4	5.0	5	5.6	5
AAC	-6.0	8	-2.1	6	-1.2	6
MWC	-4.7	7	-4.2	8	-3.0	7
MAC	-10.1	10	-3.6	7	-6.2	8
CUSA	-4.7	6	-8.0	10	-8.0	9
Sun Belt	-8.5	9	-7.5	9	-8.3	10

The ACC improved by about two points per team in 2016, while the SEC regressed by about one point. And while there was about a touchdown’s difference between the best and worst of the Power 5 in 2014, that was cut to under three and a half points this fall.

So you could say that one winner in 2016 was parity. But the big winner was the ACC.

It claimed its second team title in four years and boasted eight of the top 25 teams in the country. How did this happen? How did the ACC achieve this perch?

1. Hiring good coaches

In Mark Richt’s first season at Miami, the Hurricanes won nine games for just the second time in nine years and finished in the S&P+ top 15.

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

In December, I wrote about the SEC’s lack of creativity in its recent head coaching hires.

Despite having all the money in the world, SEC teams have seemingly sacrificed résumés for savings, Saban ties, or both in recent years.

Compare that to what the ACC did in 2016: Miami (Mark Richt, 145-51), Syracuse (Dino Babers, 37-16), Virginia (Bronco Mendenhall, 99-43), and Virginia Tech (Justin Fuente, 26-23) brought in coaches who had combined for 307 career wins and a 0.698 win percentage, 0.709 over the previous two years.

Those were hires the SEC used to make, and depending on your measure, the ACC might have taken the SEC's place atop the power conference totem pole this fall.

Over the last three coaching cycles, the ACC had brought in Richt, Babers, Mendenhall, Fuente, Pat Narduzzi (Pitt), Bobby Petrino (Louisville), and Dave Clawson (Wake Forest). That’s half the teams in the league making a relative upgrade (or, in Louisville’s case, holding steady at worst) in just three seasons. It doesn’t take long for that to make an impact on the field.

2. Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson produced more than 5,000 combined yards and scored 51 combined touchdowns in 2016.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Louisville's Lamar Jackson and Clemson's Deshaun Watson were the top two finishers in the 2016 Heisman voting. Syracuse's Eric Dungey and North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky ranked in the nation's top 15 in passer rating. Clemson, Florida State (with Deondre Francois), North Carolina, Pitt (with Nathan Peterman), and Louisville ranked in the top 25 in Passing S&P+. Georgia Tech's option attack, guided by Justin Thomas, ranked in the top 25 in both Rushing S&P+ and Passing S&P+.

The lesser offenses in the conference were still awfully shaky, enough that the ACC ranked fourth in average Off. S&P+. But the top-end firepower was impressive.

Is that maintainable? Probably not, at least in the short term. Jackson, Francois, and Dungey return, but Thomas and Peterman were seniors, and Watson, Trubisky, Virginia Tech's Jerod Evans, and Miami's Brad Kaaya have all declared for the NFL Draft. For that matter, so have star rushers James Conner (Pitt), Dalvin Cook (Florida State), Wayne Gallman (Clemson), Elijah Hood (UNC), and Joe Yearby (Miami).

One assumes there will be an offensive drop-off among the higer-end ACC offenses in 2017, even if Louisville and Florida State in particular are both potent.

3. Defense

DeMarcus Walker led a resurgent Florida State defense with 21.5 tackles for loss.

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

The ACC ranked No. 1 overall despite ranking fourth in Off. S&P+, so if you’re keeping score at home, that must say impressive things about ACC defenses.

Indeed, eight of the top 22 defenses according to Def. S&P+ claim the ACC: No. 6 Clemson, No. 10 Florida State (which labored early, then caught fire), No. 11 NC State, No. 13 Miami, No. 17 Virginia Tech, No. 19 Louisville, No. 21 Boston College, and No. 22 Wake Forest.

Only the Big Ten, which had much worse offenses, played better defense on average than the ACC.

As with quarterback play, this might not be sustainable. Eight of the 11 players on the first-team All-ACC defense were seniors, including All-Americans DeMarcus Walker (Florida State), Carlos Watkins (Clemson), Ben Boulware (Clemson), and Cordrea Tankersley (Clemson). Plus, Al-Quadin Muhammad (Miami), Nazair Jones (UNC), Jermaine Grace (Miami), and Josh Jones (NC State) have declared for the draft.

There will still be star power here next year. Clemson linemen Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence are scheduled to return, as is sacks leader Harold Landry of Boston College. And the all-conference list included quite a few sophomores in the back seven: Florida State's Tarvarus McFadden, Louisville's Jaire Alexander, Virginia Tech's Tremaine Edmunds, and Duke's Ben Humphreys. But producing eight top defenses again might be a large ask.

Sustainability, however, is a conversation to have further into the 2017 offseason. For now, 2016 belonged to the ACC.

http://www.dailypress.com/sports/teel-blog/

"In 2011, no ACC team finished among the Associated Press’ top 20 for the first time since 1970. Conference champion Clemson lost the Orange Bowl 70-33 to West Virginia, the low point of a 2-6 postseason.

Most alarming, this wasn’t a mere blip. The ACC hadn’t produced a top-five team since Florida State in 2000 and had lost 11 of its last 12 Bowl Championship Series games.

And now look at the conference many mocked and pronounced on life support when Maryland defected to the Big Ten in November 2012.
# Thanks to Clemson and Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, the ACC is home to the national champion and Heisman Trophy winner for the second time in four years. Moreover, Jackson and Watson became only the second quarterback tandem from the same league to place 1-2 in the Heisman race, joining the Big 12’s Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) and Colt McCoy (Texas) in 2008.

 

# The Tigers’ 35-31 victory Monday in Tampa, Fla., secured on Watson’s 2-yard touchdown pass to Hunter Renfrow with a second remaining, capped a 9-3 postseason for the conference, second all-time to the SEC’s 9-2 last year. The nine victories nearly doubled the ACC’s previous best of five.

# ACC teams went 17-9 this season against opponents from other Power Five conferences, most notably 10-4 versus the SEC and 6-2 against the Big Ten. Clemson defeated recent national champions Auburn, Alabama and Ohio State, the latter 31-0 in the College Football Playoff semifinals, and Florida State bested Michigan in a riveting Orange Bowl, the ACC’s fifth consecutive victory in that game.
# Clemson, No. 8 Florida State, No. 16 Virginia Tech and No. 20 Miami give the ACC four teams among the final Associated Press top 20 for the first time. Add No. 21 Louisville, and the league has five in the final top 25 for only the second time – the first was in 2012
With the ACC Network set to launch in 2019, what more could Commissioner John Swofford and television partner ESPN have asked?
Was this the most important season since the ACC’s 1953 debut? No. That transpired in 2013, when Heisman winner Jameis Winston quarterbacked Florida State to the national championship, quieting chatter of the league splintering and igniting a revival that’s a testament to quality coaches, administrative commitment and the age-old cycles of sports.
Yet for all of the Seminoles’ dominance that year, ACC teams went 7-13 versus the Power Five and 5-6 in bowls. So considerable work remained, and the dividends were more widespread this season.
Though Swofford and his staff had every reason to rage until dawn Ybor City, let’s not get carried away.
The ACC hasn’t hijacked the national championship, as the SEC did from 2006-12. And the ACC didn’t place a mind-bending five teams among the final top 10, as the SEC did in 2012, or even four, as the SEC did in 2011. Heck, the ACC has never completed a season with three top-10 squads.

Also, this was only the conference’s second winning postseason in the last nine years.
But here’s what ACC players and coaches have done: They have lifted the conference from an abyss with four consecutive nationally prominent seasons the likes of which the league had never seen.
Consider: After Florida State’s unrivaled run of top-five finishes from 1987-2000 – the Seminoles joined the ACC in 1992 – the conference went 12 straight years without a team among the final top five.
Twelve years! This was famine, plague and drought, and in an age when football television rights fees are paramount, the conference’s viability was at risk.
During that time, every other Power Five conference churned out at least nine top-five teams, the SEC leading with 18.

But then …

Florida State earned the 2013 national title with a victory over SEC champion Auburn. Moreover, Clemson won a classic Orange Bowl against Ohio State, while Winston, Boston College running back Andre Williams and Pittsburgh defensive tackle Aaron Donald claimed enough individual hardware to stock a Home Depot.
The dawn of the College Football Playoff age hasn’t slowed the momentum.

Florida State reached the 2014 semifinals, and Georgia Tech defeated Mississippi State, ranked No. 1 during the regular season, in the Orange Bowl. Clemson supplanted FSU as ACC champion last season and advanced to the CFP final against Alabama.
Not to be lost, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson in 2014, and Clemson, FSU and North Carolina in 2015 gave the ACC three top-15 teams in back-to-back years for the first time.
Not coincidentally, the league’s coaching ranks are deeper than ever, its members’ financial support of football greater than ever."

Tom FornelliVerified account ‏@TomFornelli 3m3 minutes ago

Finally, here is the average ranking of the teams in each conference using the formula I used for #Fornelli50 and #Bottom25.pic.twitter.com/ebJKqrGfra

http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/97913/the-acc-has-finally-reached-the-mountaintop-but-the-trick-is-staying-there

"The climb up has been steady, with clear benchmarks along the way. Florida State won the national championship in 2013, then made the first College Football Playoff in 2014. Clemson followed with national championship game appearances in the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Those two have been the unquestioned leaders in this turnaround.
What had been missing until this season was success beyond just those two. We saw Louisville rise, in the playoff discussion all the way through November. We saw Lamar Jackson win the Heisman Trophy, the league's first winner who wasn't a Florida State quarterback. We saw Virginia Tech win 10 games again. We saw Miami finish the season in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2009.
Eleven teams finished with winning records, more than any conference in the country. The 9-3 bowl record, the 10-4 record against the SEC, the 6-2 record against the Big Ten, the 51-17 nonconference record -- these all speak on their own. In every measurable category, the ACC bested its conference competition.
Contrast that with the end of the BCS era in 2013, when the ACC finished with a 5-13 record."


ACC teams have won 2 of the last 4 national titles in football,  2 of the last 3 in basketball, 2 of the last 4 in soccer and 1 of the last 2 in baseball. 



Last 5 years

Title game appearances and (titles):
Football
ACC - 4 (2)
Sec - 4 (2)
Big Ten - 1 (1)
PAC 12 - 1 (0)
Big 12- 0 (0)

Basketball
ACC - 3 (2)
Sec - 2 (1)
Big Ten - 2 (0)
Big 12 - 1(0)
Big East/AAC - 2 (2) 


Final Bowl Record:
ACC: 9-3 (*Includes national champions) (75%)
Big 12: 4-2 (66.7%)
Pac-12: 3-3 (50%)
SEC: 6-7 (46.2%)
Big Ten: 3-7 (30%)


ACC 10-4 vs SEC this year. Winning record 2 of the last 3 years vs the SEC. 6-2 vs the B1G this year. Two Natty's in last 4 years. Played in 3 of the last 4 Natty's. There's a new top conference in college football.



 results of what are now the NY6 games plus either BCS NC or CFP NC over the past 5 years, the ACC is 9-3 with two NCs. If we use the phrase teams now in the ACC it goes to 10-3.

2012

W - Peach Bowl - Clemson defeats LSU
W - Orange Bowl - Florida State defeats Northern Illinois

2013

W - Orange Bowl - Clemson defeats Ohio State
W - BCS NC game - Florida State defeats Auburn

*W - Sugar Bowl - Louisville defeats Florida

2014

W - Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech defeats Mississippi State
L - Rose Bowl (NC semi) - Florida State loses to Oregon

2015

L - Peach Bowl - Florida State loses to Houston
W - Orange Bowl (NC Semi) - Clemson defeats Oklahoma
L - CFP NC game - Clemson loses to Alabama

2016

W - Orange Bowl - Florida State defeats Michigan
W - Fiesta Bowl (NC semi) - Clemson defeats Ohio State
W - CFP NC game - Clemson defeats Alabama

So that is 4-1 (5-1 if we include Louisville's win) over the SEC and 3-0 over the B1G.

http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2017/01/final-sagarin-rankings-for-2016-17.html#!/2017/01/final-sagarin-rankings-for-2016-17.html

Some folks swear by Sagarin, which is fine I suppose. Here are his latest power ratings by conference and/or division:

Rank	Division or Conference	Central Mean	Simple Mean	#Teams	Win%
1	SEC-WEST	81.22	82.85	7	81.78
2	ACC-ATLANTIC	80.41	81.43	7	80.5
3	ACC-COASTAL	77.84	76.87	7	77.44
4	PAC-12(NORTH)	76.14	76.99	6	76.57
5	BIG 12	75.86	76.03	10	76.03
6	BIG TEN-EAST	74.68	74.81	7	74.6
7	BIG TEN-WEST	74.29	73.45	7	74.07
8	SEC-EAST	73.17	74.12	7	73.83
9	PAC-12(SOUTH)	73.12	73.52	6	73.27
10	AAC WEST	69.87	69.63	6	69.69
11	MWC-MOUNTAIN	67.56	67.22	6	67.32
12	I-A INDEPENDENTS	65.66	65.64	5	65.71
13	AAC EAST	63.49	64.1	6	63.74
14	MAC-WEST	63.07	64.34	6	63.6
15	SUN BELT	59.06	59.12	11	59.13

BOTTOM LINE:
The ACC is the #1 football conference.
It has two of the top three divisions.
Winning an average of 77 to 80%