https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/roster-talent-rankings-college-football-teams-with-the-best-players-in-2018/
In the College Football Playoff era, 11 of the 16 available spots have been awarded to four teams: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma. Each of these programs has recruited at or near the top of their conference and average at top-15 recruiting class in the College Football Playoff era. Additionally, the teams occupying the other five playoff bids of the era (Georgia, Florida State, Oregon, Washington and Michigan State) all fall in the top 25 of our rolling talent rankings.
Now that 2018 National Signing Day is in the books, those rankings (a five-year average of the 247Sports Composite team rankings) can be updated to give a preview of the most talented teams in college football for 2018.
| Team | Conference | Five-year average | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 3.6 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Georgia | SEC | 5.0 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Florida State | ACC | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| USC | Pac-12 | 5.6 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| LSU | SEC | 6.4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| Auburn | SEC | 9.0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| Clemson | ACC | 11.6 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 6 |
| Notre Dame | INDIE | 12.0 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 10 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 12.4 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 20 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 12.8 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 12 | 17 |
| Texas | Big 12 | 13.4 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 26 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13.4 | 14 | 15 | 21 | 8 | 9 |
| Florida | SEC | 13.4 | 9 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 15.6 | 24 | 14 | 20 | 15 | 5 |
| Miami | ACC | 16.2 | 12 | 26 | 22 | 13 | 8 |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | 16.2 | 19 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 18 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 17.8 | 20 | 38 | 5 | 5 | 21 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 19.8 | 15 | 17 | 6 | 30 | 31 |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | 20.0 | 21 | 16 | 28 | 19 | 16 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 20.2 | 16 | 19 | 26 | 21 | 19 |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | 21.2 | 13 | 24 | 16 | 14 | 39 |
| Washington | Pac-12 | 25.6 | 37 | 27 | 29 | 22 | 13 |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 26.6 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 36 | 32 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 27.0 | 35 | 18 | 31 | 24 | 27 |
Where the recent national champions (since 2010) rank: Alabama (2.2), Clemson (11.6), Ohio State (3.6), Florida State (5.2), Auburn (9.0)
Elite recruiting, no CFP appearances: USC (5.6), LSU (6.4), Auburn (9.0), Notre Dame (12.0)
Just outside the top 25: Nebraska (27.2), Arizona State (28.6), North Carolina (28.6), Virginia Tech (29.2), Baylor (29.8)
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/2/8/16990550/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class
Below are 2017, five-year, and two-year rankings.
The two-year rankings are what I use in projections, but I wanted to share all of it because I know some people like thinking in terms of five-year trends.
College football 2- and 5-year recruiting rankings
| Team | 2018 class pctile (Rk) | 2018 Rk | 5-year avg | 5yr Rk | 2-year avg | 2yr Rk | Chg in 2yr Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 2018 class pctile (Rk) | 2018 Rk | 5-year avg | 5yr Rk | 2-year avg | 2yr Rk | Chg in 2yr Rk |
| Ohio State | 99.6% | 2 | 98.7% | 2 | 99.6% | 1 | 1 |
| Georgia | 99.7% | 1 | 97.8% | 3 | 99.4% | 2 | 3 |
| USC | 98.8% | 3 | 97.5% | 5 | 98.7% | 3 | 4 |
| Alabama | 97.0% | 7 | 99.0% | 1 | 98.4% | 4 | -3 |
| Florida State | 95.1% | 10 | 97.8% | 4 | 96.8% | 5 | -2 |
| Oklahoma | 96.1% | 9 | 92.7% | 11 | 96.4% | 6 | 6 |
| LSU | 92.5% | 14 | 96.9% | 6 | 95.1% | 7 | -1 |
| Penn State | 97.8% | 5 | 89.8% | 16 | 94.8% | 8 | 9 |
| Miami-FL | 97.0% | 8 | 89.1% | 17 | 94.6% | 9 | 9 |
| Notre Dame | 94.5% | 11 | 94.1% | 8 | 93.4% | 10 | 0 |
| Auburn | 94.2% | 12 | 95.1% | 7 | 92.7% | 11 | -2 |
| Clemson | 97.0% | 6 | 94.0% | 9 | 92.3% | 12 | -1 |
| Florida | 90.3% | 15 | 91.6% | 13 | 92.0% | 13 | -5 |
| Texas A&M | 90.0% | 16 | 93.3% | 10 | 91.1% | 14 | -1 |
| Michigan | 79.9% | 23 | 83.8% | 22 | 89.3% | 15 | -11 |
| Texas | 98.3% | 4 | 91.1% | 14 | 88.3% | 16 | 3 |
| Washington | 93.0% | 13 | 79.1% | 24 | 88.0% | 17 | 9 |
| Oregon | 89.8% | 17 | 85.3% | 19 | 87.6% | 18 | 5 |
| UCLA | 86.9% | 18 | 90.4% | 15 | 86.0% | 19 | -4 |
| South Carolina | 85.3% | 19 | 85.6% | 18 | 85.5% | 20 | 2 |
| Tennessee | 82.2% | 20 | 91.7% | 12 | 85.0% | 21 | -7 |
| Nebraska | 81.5% | 21 | 78.4% | 25 | 82.9% | 22 | -1 |
| Maryland | 75.5% | 27 | 68.5% | 37 | 80.4% | 23 | 9 |
| Virginia Tech | 80.8% | 22 | 76.3% | 29 | 78.8% | 24 | 14 |
| North Carolina | 79.3% | 24 | 78.2% | 26 | 77.8% | 25 | 4 |
| Mississippi State | 77.3% | 25 | 77.5% | 27 | 77.6% | 26 | 5 |
| Stanford | 61.2% | 45 | 83.9% | 21 | 75.7% | 27 | -11 |
| Louisville | 74.9% | 28 | 70.9% | 34 | 74.6% | 28 | 8 |
| Kentucky | 70.7% | 35 | 75.6% | 30 | 73.6% | 29 | 1 |
| Ole Miss | 74.7% | 29 | 84.3% | 20 | 73.4% | 30 | -10 |
| TCU | 77.0% | 26 | 72.2% | 33 | 73.4% | 31 | -3 |
| Utah | 69.6% | 37 | 65.4% | 41 | 73.0% | 32 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 74.5% | 30 | 79.7% | 23 | 72.7% | 33 | -8 |
| Baylor | 74.3% | 31 | 74.7% | 31 | 71.5% | 34 | -10 |
| Oklahoma State | 71.8% | 34 | 69.6% | 36 | 70.1% | 35 | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 67.7% | 39 | 70.6% | 35 | 69.2% | 36 | -1 |
| Pittsburgh | 67.2% | 40 | 64.7% | 42 | 68.3% | 37 | -3 |
| Arizona State | 70.3% | 36 | 76.4% | 28 | 67.6% | 38 | -1 |
| Iowa | 66.9% | 41 | 59.7% | 46 | 66.4% | 39 | 2 |
| NC State | 74.0% | 32 | 68.0% | 38 | 66.2% | 40 | 6 |
| Arkansas | 52.7% | 58 | 73.7% | 32 | 65.4% | 41 | -14 |
| West Virginia | 72.2% | 33 | 66.8% | 39 | 65.0% | 42 | 1 |
| Colorado | 57.5% | 50 | 52.6% | 57 | 64.7% | 43 | 7 |
| Missouri | 64.9% | 42 | 65.9% | 40 | 63.7% | 44 | 5 |
| Arizona | 55.4% | 53 | 64.2% | 43 | 60.4% | 45 | -3 |
| Washington State | 61.1% | 46 | 56.0% | 52 | 60.0% | 46 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 68.1% | 38 | 57.5% | 48 | 59.8% | 47 | 6 |
| Georgia Tech | 56.1% | 51 | 57.3% | 49 | 59.5% | 48 | 6 |
| Iowa State | 55.8% | 52 | 53.9% | 55 | 58.4% | 49 | 2 |
| Illinois | 55.1% | 54 | 51.6% | 59 | 57.5% | 50 | 9 |
| Duke | 51.5% | 59 | 58.8% | 47 | 57.3% | 51 | -12 |
| Vanderbilt | 63.9% | 44 | 56.9% | 50 | 57.0% | 52 | 5 |
| Rutgers | 51.1% | 60 | 50.6% | 60 | 56.5% | 53 | 10 |
| Northwestern | 53.1% | 57 | 55.9% | 53 | 55.8% | 54 | -7 |
| Cincinnati | 60.2% | 48 | 48.7% | 64 | 55.0% | 55 | 12 |
| Indiana | 60.6% | 47 | 56.1% | 51 | 54.3% | 56 | 6 |
| California | 64.7% | 43 | 62.9% | 44 | 54.1% | 57 | -9 |
| Syracuse | 53.8% | 55 | 52.0% | 58 | 52.9% | 58 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 41.9% | 71 | 59.8% | 45 | 52.1% | 59 | -15 |
| Oregon State | 42.6% | 70 | 53.2% | 56 | 51.6% | 60 | -15 |
| Virginia | 47.5% | 64 | 55.6% | 54 | 49.6% | 61 | -1 |
| Purdue | 57.6% | 49 | 45.2% | 69 | 49.4% | 62 | 10 |
| Kansas | 53.6% | 56 | 44.6% | 70 | 49.2% | 63 | 14 |
| Kansas State | 47.4% | 65 | 50.1% | 61 | 49.1% | 64 | 4 |
| Boise State | 51.0% | 61 | 48.6% | 65 | 48.9% | 65 | -1 |
| Central Florida | 42.9% | 69 | 47.5% | 67 | 47.9% | 66 | -8 |
| Wake Forest | 50.2% | 62 | 49.3% | 62 | 46.0% | 67 | -1 |
| Boston College | 44.2% | 67 | 47.8% | 66 | 44.5% | 68 | 3 |
| South Florida | 49.2% | 63 | 49.0% | 63 | 43.3% | 69 | 0 |
| Houston | 44.5% | 66 | 42.8% | 71 | 42.2% | 70 | -14 |
| Memphis | 31.8% | 84 | 38.5% | 75 | 40.4% | 71 | -6 |
| BYU | 31.2% | 85 | 46.4% | 68 | 39.0% | 72 | -17 |
| Toledo | 40.4% | 73 | 30.3% | 81 | 37.0% | 73 | 10 |
| Southern Miss | 35.0% | 77 | 29.8% | 82 | 35.9% | 74 | 7 |
| San Diego State | 34.3% | 79 | 38.9% | 74 | 35.7% | 75 | -1 |
| UTSA | 34.1% | 80 | 24.3% | 94 | 35.7% | 76 | 10 |
| Florida Atlantic | 27.4% | 90 | 31.2% | 79 | 34.3% | 77 | 2 |
| Western Michigan | 41.3% | 72 | 40.3% | 72 | 33.4% | 78 | -5 |
| Tulane | 43.7% | 68 | 28.6% | 84 | 32.9% | 79 | 13 |
| Marshall | 38.9% | 74 | 40.2% | 73 | 32.8% | 80 | -5 |
| East Carolina | 29.4% | 86 | 32.0% | 78 | 32.7% | 81 | -3 |
| Colorado State | 29.4% | 87 | 31.0% | 80 | 32.2% | 82 | -12 |
| Florida International | 37.2% | 76 | 24.8% | 91 | 32.2% | 83 | 10 |
| SMU | 31.8% | 83 | 32.8% | 77 | 31.7% | 84 | -8 |
| Western Kentucky | 33.3% | 81 | 26.7% | 87 | 30.9% | 85 | 6 |
| Louisiana Tech | 37.4% | 75 | 28.7% | 83 | 30.6% | 86 | 4 |
| Tulsa | 27.0% | 91 | 26.4% | 89 | 28.3% | 87 | -2 |
| Bowling Green | 26.2% | 92 | 21.9% | 97 | 27.0% | 88 | 11 |
| Arkansas State | 32.3% | 82 | 25.4% | 90 | 26.2% | 89 | 6 |
| Temple | 34.7% | 78 | 37.5% | 76 | 25.4% | 90 | -10 |
| Northern Illinois | 28.3% | 88 | 20.8% | 101 | 24.6% | 91 | 26 |
| Navy | 20.8% | 98 | 27.3% | 86 | 24.0% | 92 | -4 |
| Middle Tennessee | 18.4% | 101 | 24.6% | 93 | 23.8% | 93 | -9 |
| Georgia State | 27.4% | 89 | 19.2% | 105 | 23.8% | 94 | 21 |
| Fresno State | 15.9% | 106 | 26.4% | 88 | 22.6% | 95 | -13 |
| Connecticut | 23.1% | 95 | 21.9% | 96 | 22.3% | 96 | 6 |
| Troy | 24.5% | 93 | 20.6% | 102 | 22.1% | 97 | -3 |
| Nevada | 23.5% | 94 | 21.7% | 98 | 21.3% | 98 | 6 |
| North Texas | 22.6% | 96 | 19.1% | 106 | 21.0% | 99 | 15 |
| Texas State | 19.4% | 100 | 20.1% | 104 | 20.7% | 100 | 5 |
| Ball State | 12.5% | 115 | 18.1% | 109 | 19.2% | 101 | 0 |
| UL-Monroe | 16.6% | 103 | 16.8% | 115 | 19.0% | 102 | 11 |
| Miami-OH | 10.6% | 121 | 21.9% | 95 | 18.8% | 103 | -16 |
| UNLV | 20.0% | 99 | 21.5% | 99 | 18.5% | 104 | -15 |
| Hawaii | 15.8% | 107 | 14.9% | 119 | 18.4% | 105 | 6 |
| Georgia Southern | 20.9% | 97 | 24.6% | 92 | 18.4% | 106 | -10 |
| Central Michigan | 12.3% | 116 | 17.2% | 113 | 18.1% | 107 | -1 |
| San Jose State | 16.2% | 105 | 27.3% | 85 | 17.3% | 108 | -8 |
| Appalachian State | 14.8% | 110 | 20.4% | 103 | 16.4% | 109 | 3 |
| Army | 16.5% | 104 | 16.4% | 116 | 15.7% | 110 | -2 |
| Wyoming | 9.4% | 124 | 16.1% | 117 | 15.4% | 111 | -1 |
| Charlotte | 11.6% | 118 | 14.9% | 120 | 15.3% | 112 | 7 |
| Ohio | 14.4% | 111 | 17.4% | 111 | 15.1% | 113 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 9.1% | 126 | 18.3% | 108 | 15.0% | 114 | -16 |
| Utah State | 9.4% | 125 | 17.2% | 112 | 13.9% | 115 | -6 |
| Massachusetts | 11.1% | 119 | 17.9% | 110 | 13.3% | 116 | -19 |
| UAB | 17.7% | 102 | 14.9% | 121 | 13.3% | 117 | -14 |
| South Alabama | 13.4% | 113 | 18.4% | 107 | 13.2% | 118 | -11 |
| Kent State | 14.9% | 108 | 12.5% | 126 | 12.7% | 119 | -9 |
| UL-Lafayette | 10.8% | 120 | 16.9% | 114 | 12.3% | 120 | -2 |
| Eastern Michigan | 13.4% | 112 | 13.2% | 123 | 11.5% | 121 | 5 |
| Old Dominion | 10.3% | 122 | 20.9% | 100 | 11.5% | 122 | 1 |
| Rice | 7.6% | 127 | 15.4% | 118 | 10.8% | 123 | 1 |
| New Mexico State | 12.5% | 114 | 11.3% | 128 | 10.4% | 124 | 3 |
| Buffalo | 5.6% | 130 | 14.3% | 122 | 10.1% | 125 | -5 |
| Akron | 11.9% | 117 | 13.0% | 124 | 9.7% | 126 | -3 |
| UTEP | 9.4% | 123 | 12.2% | 127 | 9.5% | 127 | 5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 14.9% | 109 | 9.1% | 128 | |||
| Air Force | 7.1% | 128 | 12.8% | 125 | 7.3% | 129 | -8 |
| Liberty | 6.7% | 129 | 7.1% | 130 |
(Note: Service academy recruiting rankings are notoriously strange. A lot of guys commit, many don’t get accepted, many change their plans, and plenty without recruiting profiles end up on the roster. So the grain-of-salt method is the way to go with Army, Navy, and Air Force.)
There are rarely a ton of changes here — the teams that recruit well tend to be the teams that always recruit well. Still, there are some interesting shifts. As it pertains to the S&P+ projections, here are some of the most important:
Largest positive change in two-year recruiting rankings (Power 5)
- Virginia Tech (14 spots, from 38th to 24th)
- Kansas (14 spots, from 77th to 63rd)
- Rutgers (10 spots, from 63rd to 53rd)
- Purdue (10 spots, from 72nd to 62nd)
- Penn State (nine spots, from 17th to eighth)
- Miami (nine spots, from 18th to ninth)
- Washington (nine spots, from 26th to 17th)
- Maryland (nine spots, from 32nd to 23rd)
- Illinois (nine spots, from 59th to 50th)
- Louisville (eight spots, from 36th to 28th)
Obviously a list of rising rankings is going to feature a lot of teams that started really far down the list (with lots of room to rise), but two of the top 10 risers were already doing reasonably well.
Both Penn State and Miami have kicked their respective recruiting games up a notch or two. Penn State’s 2018 haul finished fifth overall in my percentile ratings, ahead of Alabama, while Miami finished eighth, just behind the Crimson Tide. James Franklin has taken full advantage of PSU’s recent on-field success, while it appears that both Georgia and Miami benefited when the former fired head coach Mark Richt and the latter picked him up.
Three other teams rose a decent length to join the two-year top 25: Washington, Virginia Tech, and Maryland. Terps head coach D.J. Durkin is doing all he can from a recruiting standpoint; we’ll see if that begins to translate on the field in 2018.
And now we look at the other side: the teams that are falling.
Largest negative change in two-year recruiting rankings (Power 5*)
- Oregon State (15 spots, from 45th to 60th)
- Texas Tech (15 spots, from 44th to 59th)
- Arkansas (14 spots, from 27th to 41st)
- Duke (12 spots, from 39th to 51st)
- Stanford (11 spots, from 16th to 27th)
- Michigan (11 spots, from fourth to 15th)
- Baylor (10 spots, from 24th to 34th)
- Ole Miss (10 spots, from 20th to 30th)
- California (nine spots, from 48th to 57th)
- Michigan State (eight spots, from 25th to 33rd)
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