Analyzing 2014 College Football Television Ratings

No huge surprises here.  Normal insights:

*ACC ratings are better than their TV contracts.  Swofford is to blame for this.  And the presidents who believe his con.

*ACC lacks depth

What I always laugh about here is how, even recently, ACC fans will blame FSU for bad TV contract during Bobby's 'down years' (FSU never below .500 and still won bowl games).  So if over 25 years, you have 5 'down years', the conference (who is down the WHOLE 25 years) blames FSU.

This conference looks at itself as the academic conference....but judging by their logic, it is fan base lack intelligence.


Analyzing 2014 College Football Television Ratings

"The TexAgs data suggests the following average ratings (I believe I have replicated this correctly).

1. SEC = 4.52 Mil
2.  B10 =2.69 Mil,
3. ACC=2.64 Mil,
4. P 12 = 2.23 Mil,
5. B12 = 2.01 Mil

The adjusted data suggests the following ratings:
1.  SEC = 2.58 Mil, 
2.  B10 = 1.62 Mil,  
3.  B12 = 1.57 Mil,  
4.  ACC = 1.41 Mil, 
5.  P12 = 1.34 Mil

Finally in the original data there are twelve SEC teams in the Top 25, seven Big Ten teams, three Pac 12 teams, two ACC teams, and one independent team.  In the adjusted ratings there are ten SEC teams, five Big Ten teams, five Big 12 teams, three Pac 12 teams, one ACC team and one independent.  This data will have a slight “pro Big 12 bias” as over seventy eight percent of Big 12 games were rated while other conferences are between fifty three and sixty percent rated games.  To reference the examples I pointed out above in these adjusted ratings Oklahoma finished 15th in average TV rating (up from 26^th) while Florida finished 22^nd (down from 7^th)."


Team                           # of average Viewers  Conference      # of rated games

1. Alabama                               6.02                 SEC                 11/13 = 84.6%
2. Florida State                        5.73                 ACC                12/13 = 92.3%
3. Notre Dame                         4.20                 IND                 12/12 = 100%
4. Auburn                                  3.89                 SEC                 9/12 = 75%
5. Ohio State                            3.81                 B10                 10/13 = 76.9%
6. Mississippi                          3.35                 SEC                 10/12 = 83.3%
7. Mississippi State                3.04                 SEC                 8/12 = 66.7%
8. Michigan State                   2.71                 B10                 8/12 = 66.7%
9. Georgia                                 2.62                 SEC                 7/12 = 58.3%
10. LSU                                        2.62                 SEC                 8/12 = 66.7%
11. Texas A&M                          2.56                 SEC                 8/12 = 66.7%
12. Michigan                              2.52                 B10                 8/12 = 66.7%
13. Oregon                                  2.31                 P12                  10/13 = 76.9%
14. Missouri                               2.28                 SEC                 8/13 = 61.5%
15. Oklahoma                            2.17                 B12                 11/12 = 91.7%
16. Southern California           2.11                 P12                  10/12 = 83.3%
17. Wisconsin                            2.08                 B10                 10/13 = 76.9%
18. UCLA                                     2.07                 P12                  10/12 = 83.3%
19. Nebraska                               2.01                 B10                 8/12 = 66.7%
20. Baylor                                     1.97                 B12                 11/12 = 91.7%
21. Arkansas                               1.94                 SEC                 8/12 = 66.7%
22. Florida                                    1.93                 SEC                 5/11 = 45.5%
23. TCU                                         1.80                 B12                 10/12 = 83.3%
24. West Virginia                       1.73                 B12                 9/12 = 75%
25. Ks State and Texas (tie)     1.72                 B12                 10/12 = 83.3%

 Avg Ratings according to rated Data                   Avg TV Ratings “adjusted” 

1. SEC = 4.52 M                                                       1.  SEC = 2.58 M
2. B10 =2.69 M                                                         2.  B10 = 1.62 M
3. ACC = 2.64 M                                                      3.  B12 = 1.57 M
4. P12 = 2.23 M                                                        4.  ACC = 1.41 M
5. B12 = 2.01 M                                                        5.  P12 = 1.34 M

http://westvirginia.scout.com/forums/4582-big12-conference/13681865-adjusted-tv-ratings?s=159&page=2&s=159

Nole Lou wrote: I think it's clearly an over adjustment.  But nonetheless, it does address the TexAgs flaw, and takes it in diametrically the other direction.  When I read the intro I was hoping for something a little more sophisticated, but it is what it is.

The truth is somewhere in the middle, so this is as good a counterpoint to the TexAgs data.

If the truth is in the middle, here are the averages of the RAW & adjusted numbers.  It is still skewed more toward the raw numbers (since it essentially makes the unrated games half of what the rated average is, which is still way too high, as the unrated games are significantly closer to 0 viewers than they are half of the rated games).

CONFERENCE AVERAGE
1. SEC - 3.12
2. Big Ten - 1.93
3. Big 12 - 1.68
4. ACC - 1.66
5. Pac 12 - 1.52

CONFERENCE AVERAGE (Subtracting highest/lowest numbers)
1. SEC - 3.06
2. Big Ten - 1.84
3. Big 12 - 1.76
4. Pac 12 - 1.53
5. ACC - 1.38

CONFERENCE MEDIAN
1. SEC - 3.15
2. Big 12 - 1.90
3. Big Ten - 1.77
4. ACC - 1.45
5. Pac 12 - 1.42

BIG 12
1. Oklahoma - 2.27
2. Baylor - 2.06
3. West Virginia - 2.02
4. TCU - 1.98
5. Kansas State - 1.90
5. Texas - 1.90
7. Oklahoma State - 1.87
8. Texas Tech - 1.35
9. Iowa State - 1.03
10. Kansas - 0.39

ACC
1. Florida State - 6.01
2. Miami - 1.94
3. Clemson - 1.83
4. NC State - 1.74
5. Louisville - 1.67
6. Virginia Tech - 1.47
7. Boston College - 1.45
7. Georgia Tech - 1.45
9. Virginia - 1.38
10. Syracuse - 1.09
11. Wake Forest - 1.03
12. North Carolina - 0.89
13. Pittsburgh - 0.67
14. Duke - 0.60

BIG TEN
1. Ohio State - 4.39
2. Michigan State - 3.39
3. Michigan - 3.15
4. Nebraska - 2.52
5. Wisconsin - 2.42
6. Minnesota - 2.07
7. Penn State - 1.99
8. Iowa - 1.55
9. Purdue - 1.45
10. Maryland - 1.00
11. Rutgers - 0.95
12. Illinois - 0.88
13. Northwestern - 0.72
14. Indiana - 0.50

PAC 12
1. Oregon - 2.66
2. Southern Cal - 2.32
3. UCLA - 2.28
4. Stanford - 2.00
5. Arizona - 1.74
6. Arizona State - 1.57
7. Utah - 1.27
8. Oregon State - 1.20
9. California - 1.19
10. Washington State - 0.87
11. Washington - 0.86
12. Colorado - 0.29

SEC
1. Alabama - 6.57
2. Auburn - 4.54
3. Mississippi State - 3.80
4. Mississippi - 3.69
5. Georgia - 3.56
6. LSU - 3.28
7. Texas A&M - 3.20
8. Florida - 3.09
9. Missouri - 3.00
10. Arkansas - 2.43
10. Tennessee - 2.43
12. South Carolina - 2.20
13. Kentucky - 1.52
14. Vanderbilt - 0.35

wvukicker wrote:ACC has nothing outside of FSU...

Florida State made up 34% of ACC's total ratings.  That is a even more amazing when you consider they are just 1 of 14 teams.

Here is what each school contributed to their conferences overall adjusted ratings:

BIG 12
15. Oklahoma - 14.4%
20. Baylor - 13.1%
23. TCU - 12.0%
24. West Virginia - 11.5%
25. Kansas State - 11.4%
25. Texas - 11.4%
28. Oklahoma State - 11.3%
AVERAGE - 10.0%
39. Texas Tech - 7.7%
45. Iowa State - 5.4%
63. Kansas - 1.7%

ACC
2. Florida State - 33.8%
29. Clemson - 9.7%
30. Miami - 9.7%
32. Louisville - 8.4%
AVERAGE - 7.1%
42. Virginia - 5.4%
43. Virginia Tech - 5.0%
44. Boston College - 5.0%
49. Syracuse - 4.3%
52. Georgia Tech - 4.0%
54. Wake Forest - 3.5%
56. Pittsburgh - 3.1%
57. North Carolina - 3.0%
59. NC State - 2.9%
61. Duke - 2.1%

BIG TEN
5. Ohio State - 18.2%
8. Michigan State - 12.9%
12. Michigan - 12.0%
17. Wisconsin - 9.9%
19. Nebraska - 9.6%
31. Penn State - 7.6%
AVERAGE - 7.1%
35. Minnesota - 6.6%
37. Iowa - 5.9%
38. Purdue - 5.5%
50. Illinois - 3.3%
53. Rutgers - 3.0%
58. Maryland - 2.4%
60. Northwestern - 1.8%
64. Indiana - 1.2%

PAC 12
13. Oregon - 16.0%
16. Southern Cal - 14.6%
18. UCLA - 14.4%
27. Stanford - 11.9%
34. Arizona - 9.8%
36. Arizona State - 9.3%
AVERAGE - 8.3%
41. Utah - 6.4%
46. Oregon State - 5.5%
51. California - 4.9%
55. Washington - 4.2%
62. Washington State - 2.4%
66. Colorado - 0.6%

SEC
1. Alabama - 17.9%
4. Auburn - 11.6%
6. Mississippi - 10.0%
7. Mississippi State - 9.0%
9. Georgia - 7.8%
10. LSU - 7.8%
11. Texas A&M - 7.6%
AVERAGE - 7.1%
14. Missouri - 6.8%
21. Arkansas - 5.8%
22. Florida - 5.7%
33. Tennessee - 4.3%
40. South Carolina - 3.2%
47. Kentucky - 2.3%
65. Vanderbilt - 0.3%