2015 the Year of Living Dangerously for the ACC

Interesting read.......don't believe much of it....I do believe UVA to B1G is a threat.  Do believe an ACC Network WITH revenue is essential to the ACC being a legit home to FSU.

We will see.


2015 the Year of Living Dangerously for the ACC

"I've been following expansion since Oliver Luck became the AD at West Virginia in 2011. In the intervening years I've made many great contacts and made mistakes and learned valuable lessons. The most important was who to trust.

I trust the individual who is the source of the insight on Big Ten strategy for this post. He has proven a source of reliable information over and over again.

Expansion is a popular topic of discussion. Everybody has an opinion and everyone has a friend who knows somebody.

My sources for this post have direct knowledge of the current state of the expansion landscape. They know because they are affiliated with the conferences, the schools or work for a network.

I've verified what I've learned as much as possible.

There is only one scenario in which current P5 schools switch conferences and that is a raid of the ACC by the Big Ten.

Before I get into details I want to address the Big 12. The Big 12 is solid. Texas, and therefore Oklahoma, are 100% committed to the conference. The reasons are many but the primary reason is both believe the Big 12 champion has the easiest access to the playoffs.

The other, less controversial reason, is the grant of rights. Each Big 12 school received a bonus payment from Fox & ESPN for signing the GoR.

More importantly the Big 12's grant of rights was required by the networks prior to agreeing to the TV deal. That's important because the conference is required to have a minimum of ten members else the TV contract is invalidated.

That means the departing school & their new conference would be liable for tortuous interference with real damages totaling the lost TV money for each school for every year remaining on the TV contract.

Do the math - the damages would be near $1.5 billion.

Nobody is leaving the Big 12 now or in the future.

But what about the ACC?

The ACC signed their grant of rights after their TV deal was renewed and after it was redone when Notre Dame joined as a partial member.

It was not required by ESPN and therefore ACC schools did not receive any financial consideration for signing it.

So why did they sign it?

According to a source at NC State it was signed to calm ESPN's fears that FSU, UVA, GT or UNC would leave.

The ACC reasoned the only way to increase revenues was with a conference network. The only way they could get ESPN to even discuss the possibility was by signing the grant of rights.

Why would the Big Ten risk an ACC raid?

It's not that big of risk. The Big Ten believes the ACC grant of rights is vulnerable because of the lack of financial compensation. They believe that state schools in the ACC cannot legally assign rights without receiving fair market value.

A source currently with the Big Ten Network in an executive position tells me the conference will approach UVA & GT about membership prior to
renegotiating its primary rights deal next year.

The Big Ten expects revenues to be nearly $45 million per school in 2016. That number could climb as high as $50 million if they are successful luring UVA & GT.

Will that be enough? Maybe yes, maybe no.

More than half the ACC has revenue problems including GT but UVA isn't one of them.

FSU recently announced they were cutting 2% from the athletics budget. Pitt is losing about $6 million each and every year. Syracuse can't find a way to pay for a new roof on the Carrier Dome and Wake, BC and even VT face problems.

UVA doesn't have great need and that's a necessary component to produce movement but that may be temporary.

It's clear the ACC grant of rights is linked to a conference network. I'm told by the same source at NC State that's the case - without an ACCN the grant of rights is invalid.

They key is ESPN. If the Big Ten selects ESPN as the T1 TV partner ESPN is unlikely to go ahead with the often promised ACC network. Yet if the Big Ten picks Fox as the primary partner then ESPN is likely to give the ACCN the green light.

If only it were that simple.

UVA isn't a sure thing with or without a ACCN.

But there is one school that would certainly leave if ESPN passes on a the ACCN.

Sitting in the corner wearing the dunce cap, at least in the Big Ten's opinion, is FSU.

The Big Ten could blow the ACC apart by inviting FSU and add both UVA & GT in the aftermath of subsequent raids in the ACC by the SEC and Big Ten.

Adding FSU means UVA, Duke, and UNC have no other choice but leave too.

Yet FSU isn't a AAU member. That means Jim Delany can't even approach them.

The Big Ten's Council of Presidents and Chancellors is willing to waive the contiguous state requirement but they have decreed that AAU membership is a must.

So it's all down to this: if ESPN partners with the ACC for a network then realignment, at least among P5 schools, is over.

If ESPN partners with the Big Ten & the Big Ten uses its influence to kill the ACCN then we can expect the Big Ten to entice UVA, GT or UNC to move opening the door for the SEC and Big 12 to expand with the leftovers.

BYU and the other G5 schools with aspirations to move up can only hope that ESPN decides an ACCN is worth the risk and that the Big Ten chooses Fox as its primary TV partner."