Future expansion predicitons

This poster has long argued the money differences will pull UNC and UVA (to start with) to the B1G or SEC (not necessarily together).  So just saving his predictions for future Big 12.

Not my predictions, just one I am noting because he has been stuck on this for years.


Chicago Sun Times--Big Ten will expand, four 16 team leagues

TXbeerme

5/7/2014

"

TXbeerme wrote:

You are looking at something like:
Texas/TTech/Baylor/TCU
OU/OkState/KU/KState
WVU/Louisville/ISU/ND
FSU/Miami/GT/Clemson

You can debate whatever exact teams are involved & how they'd be aligned, but NCSU isn't on the board for us & we're not giving up KU just to make things symmetrical."

" Obviously.

I think it's fine to shoot for ND, but you have to have a solid backup plan if you're going to do that.

Optimally, with ACC coming apart (2ea to SEC & B1G), you'd want to initially go to 14 rather than 16. PAC would then have to accept the inevitability of not being able to get B12 teams and start moving on second tier schools in markets that do something for their network. That would leave us with two slots and the breakaway train leaving the station. That is super massive leverage in general, and leaves ND pretty close to no option but taking the deal we offer or not having a seat at the table.

However, it is more likely that to get ACC broken apart - to kill the GOR - you need to pull 10 teams at once. That means we would have to take 6 & maybe not have the leverage or timing to get ND.

Hence, I think the more likely situation is:
Texas/TTech/Baylor/TCU
FSU/Miami/GT/Duke or VT (if SEC leaves them behind)
WVU/Louisville/Clemson... ISU or Pitt (if KU were gone)
OU/OkState/KState/KU or ISU (if KU were gone)

That's still balance pretty well with Clemson moving up to that other pod. WVU would nut all over themselves for a pod/conf like that & it'd be a good result for having to wait out on an island till we could get it in place. That overall conf would be a solid competitor to SEC/B1G/PAC in revenue & on the field.

This is all contingent on B12 staying strong, & B1G & SEC putting ACC at a revenue differential situation where their teams have to make a move. Once they break out their four then we can get what we need, PAC will take what they have to take to elevate their network revenue & keep on par in revenues. It'll all work out. But, that's going to take at least 4-6 yrs from now before that stuff happening is a viable possibility. In the meantime, we need to just keep doing what we're doing. Not worry about a CCG or lack of, and do what we can to maximize revenues with 10 teams."