Conference Payout Projections & Revenue Gap

Great projections from ACCfootballrx below (the immediate table is my expansion of it to included the P2).  The hope is the ACC closes the gap.  The most recent numbers show a huge jump in the revenue gap that the ACC and it's media have refused to admit is there (or disputed that it would be over $10 Million).  That gap is clearly surpassing that this year and likely next. 

Will the gap be closed with the ACCN?  I think so.  But where does that gap settle at?  Tough to tell right now.

I think one huge area that is rarely discussed in ACC circles, is the bowl contract needs to be fixed.  Swofford did a horrible job with this and is just another reason he owns much of this revenue gap situation.

	ACC	SEC	B1G	Approx. Revenue Gap
2014-15	$26.2M	$32.3M	$32.4M	$6M
2015-16*	$23M	$40.4M	$45M	$17M-$22M
2016-17	$28M
2017-18	$32.4M
2018-19*	$30.1M
2019-20	$41.1M
2020-21	$46M

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2017/02/accn-update-22717.html?showComment=1488210142185#!/2017/02/accn-update-22717.html

How much revenue can ACC teams expect to get once the ACC Network is up and running? Let's start with our previous estimates for ACC revenue growth based on the old TV contract, then add in what the FSU AD estimates each team will get from the new ACC Network deal:

Season	$M/team	+ACCN $	est. Total$
2014-15	$26.2M		$26.2M
2015-16*	$23M		$23M
2016-17	$28M		$28M
2017-18	$29.4M	+$3M	$32.4M
2018-19*	$27.1M	+$3M	$30.1M
2019-20	$32.1M	+$8 to $10M	$41.1M
2020-21	$33.5M	+$10 to $15M	$46M

How does ACC revenue projections compare to the SEC and Big Ten?

First, let me point out that you really have to watch out for little clues that the Big Ten is over-estimating revenue. For example, they said that "11 teams" were paid "$32 million" in 2014-15. The problem with that is there are 14 teams in the B1G, not 11 - and when you average all 14 you get $29 million, not $32 [LINK].

The B1G projects "12 of its 14 schools to pull in approximately $44.5 million during the 2017-18 school year. That would be the first year of the new television deal." [LINK]. The actual average that year? It's impossible to calculate exactly, but based on previous trends I'm guessing it's more like $42 million.

Meanwhile, the SEC reported an average for all 14 teams of $32 million for 2014-15. The biggest difference is that the Big Ten has a huge new TV contract about to kick in, while the SEC is mostly locked in for the long haul (with the exception of the smaller - but still very valuable - tier one package currently broadcast by CBS). Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SEC get about $40 million per team, just like the Big Ten.




http://gridironnow.com/timing-finally-right-acc-football-cash/2/

The last time the ACC had the chance to cash in on the value of its media rights – the sale of football and basketball games involving conference members to the highest bidding television network – was 2010. The league had never been weaker.

The conference’s football product, the asset which increasingly drives demand from networks, was a mess.

ESPN and the ACC agreed to a 12-year deal which would see each school receive roughly $13 million per year from the cable company, a handsome sum, but well below what the Big Ten was receiving and what the SEC would be receiving from its combined ESPN and CBS contracts, plus revenue anticipated from the SEC Network launch in 2014.

Timing is everything.

The next time the ACC will have the chance to cash in on the value of its media rights in late 2018 and early 2019 when the league, in conjunction with ESPN, will begin offering the ACC Network to distributors. The league has never been stronger.

Florida State is once again a perennial national power under Jimbo Fisher having finished ranked inside the top 10 four of the past five seasons. The Seminoles have beaten Florida six of the last seven years and as further evidence of the ACC’s increasing stature, Fisher has reportedly turned down overtures from LSU in each of the past two seasons to coach the Tigers.

Clemson is the national champion, having finished ranked inside the top 10 three of the past four seasons with no signs of slowing down.

A more competitive Louisville program has replaced Maryland. Excitement at Miami under Mark Richt and Virginia Tech under Justin Fuente is high. Very importantly, ACC teams now play five games annually against huge TV draw Notre Dame. The ACC turned in the best bowl record of any conference for 2016 and has stood toe-to-toe versus the SEC on the field across all games and teams for the past three seasons.

Heck, even Duke is good.

Timing is everything.

 When the ACC and ESPN begin their negotiations to convince cable operators to carry ACC Network, the conference will do so from a position of power almost unimaginable 10 years ago.

Florida State athletic director Stan Wilcox expects the results of those negotiations to be exceedingly lucrative. He recently told the school’s board of directors expectations inside the league are for revenues from the ACC Network to increase to $8-10 million per member school once the linear network launches in the fall of 2019.

That’s more revenue generated per school than SEC Network in its first year of operation. The figure is roughly three times what I would have anticipated, and while I still find Wilcox’s estimate to be unbelievably high, he must be getting that number from somewhere. Even if the figure is half of that, it’s a game changer for league members.

To reinforce my timing argument, understand that the ACC receives just over $27 million for placing a team in the Orange Bowl each season. The Big 12 receives roughly $40 million for its representative in the Sugar Bowl. Twenty-seven split 14 ways and 40 split 10 is a huge difference.

Imagine how different those figures would look if the contracts were written today instead of five years ago.

The 2000s were a lost decade for ACC football for which it was punished at the bargaining table. The 2010s have been a boon and the league is preparing to cash in.

http://floridastate.247sports.com/Board/36/Contents/Wilcox-projects-significant-revenue-jump-from-ACC-Network-51424858

Florida State athletics director Stan Wilcox said the ACC's revised television deal will deliver an increased payout of $3 million in the 2017-18 fiscal year.

Wilcox was asked about ACC television distributions at an FSU Board of Trustees meeting on Wednesday morning. A boost was expected with the July 2016 announcement of the ACC Network Extra by league commissioner John Swofford

Revenues will jump once the "linear" ACC Network launches in the fall of 2019. Wilcox said the ACC's projections have indicated that the distribution per school will increase by $8 million-$10 million in 2019-20, and then $10 million-$15 million in future years.

"These are all projections," Wilcox said. "It all depends on how well the network does. They are saying this network should have the same kind of return that the SEC Network has had in their first couple of years."

 

http://floridastate.247sports.com/Board/36/Contents/Wilcox-projects-significant-revenue-jump-from-ACC-Network-51424858

"The ACC Channel should do well, due to the size of the home media markets it will penetrate for ACC schools;
9 - Boston
10 - Atlanta
16 Miami
22 Charlotte
23 Pittsburg
24 Raleigh-Durham
37 Greenville-Spartanburg
46 Winston Salem
49 Louisville
85 Syracuse
107 Tallahassee
183 Charlottesvile, VA "