Thursday, July 21, 2016

ESPN ACC Network Revenue Prediction (Updated)

Saved for future note.

https://floridastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/acc-network-from-the-acc-media-days-event.133711/

I have been told that payouts before the network will not be insignificant. Looks like the network numbers are projected to be around $ 8 million per team but that was just a projection and I got that number from a pretty solid source. THese numbers are hard to project anyway and even harder to compare as each conference uses different formula's to produce their numbers. I agree with JMG. This is a great move. Solidifies the ACC and puts FSU in a great position going forward. For those who don't like the GOR, I understand, but it is the best thing for the conference and what is good for the ACC should be good for FSU. Lets face it, the SEC ain't coming to call and neither is the BIG. The Big 12 is a fiasco we should want nothing to do with.

I have never really been on board with Swofford. I don't think he is in Gene Corrigan's league as far as ACC commish goes, but I have to say, he seems to have done good work here.
 

even if its not at 8 million it should be fairly close to that. I believe the SEC's last figures were around 7 so we should be in the ballpark.
 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/columnist/george-schroeder/2016/07/21/acc-media-days-tv-network-means-stability/87413384/

"There are the obvious financial ramifications of adding a conference network. Though no one would discuss specifics, once launched in August 2019, the ACC’s network will likely add between $5 million and $8 million to each school’s budget (and for the next two years, in the run-up to launch, the ACC’s rights deal will increase). It will lift the ACC into third place in revenue among Power Five leagues, behind the Big Ten and SEC but ahead of the Big 12 and Pac-12. It’s not necessarily a bonanza, but it’s not insignificant."


David Teel@DavidTeelatDP 3 minutes ago
Consultant Dean Jordan says if "performs even moderately," league will be "very, very competitive financially."


https://floridastate.rivals.com/news/acc-network-in-focus-5-key-questions-and-answers-for-fsu-fans

"“We know that we’re going to be in the upper echelon of networks, along with the Big Ten and the SEC,” FSU athletics director Stan Wilcox told Warchant.com. “And we know what numbers they’ve been hitting in the past. So we’re able to kind of project off of that. We’re very optimistic that we’re going to be doing just as good or even better than both of those leagues.” "

http://www.dailypress.com/sports/teel-blog/dp-teel-time-acc-announces-network-post.html

Wasserman Media Group consultant Dean Jordan and ESPN president John Skipper were among the legions whom the conference gathered Thursday at its annual football kickoff to confirm and fete the network’s creation, a collaboration with ESPN.
“If the network performs even moderately,” Jordan said, “it will put the ACC in a situation where they’ll be very, very competitive financially with the upper tier of the collegiate industry.”


http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/17102933/acc-espn-agree-20-year-rights-deal-lead-2019-launch-acc-network


  • Brett McMurphyCollege football reporter
  • The long-awaited ACC Network will launch by August 2019, with the Atlantic Coast Conference and ESPN agreeing to a 20-year deal and rights extension through the 2035-36 academic year in an announcement made Thursday.

    The ACC also extended its conference grant of rights deal nine years through 2035-36, a source told ESPN.
    The conference's grant of rights makes it untenable financially for a school to leave, guaranteeing in the 20 years of the deal that a school's media rights, including revenue, for all home games would remain with the ACC regardless of the school's affiliation.
    The ACC's new grant of rights also automatically extends Notre Dame's contract with the conference as a member in all sports but football through 2035-36, a source said. If the Irish forgo football independence in the next 20 years, they are contracted to join the ACC.
    While the linear network will launch by 2019, the ACC Network's digital channel will start this fall.
    The addition of the ACC Network will increase the league's overall value, putting it in line with the top Power 5 conferences.
    "When the ACC Network revenues are included, the ACC will be very competitive with the upper tier [Big Ten and SEC] of the Power 5 leagues," a source said.



    http://www.scacchoops.com/speculating-on-how-much-the-acc-network-could-earn


    Speculating on how much the ACC Network could earn


    Posted: 8/3/2016 7:00:38 AM


    Now that the ACC Network is definitely coming, how much could it make?
    newaccbrandSportsBusinessDaily.com says the ESPN could ask for an $1.30 in-state subscriber fee and .25 outside of an ACC State.  
    Sources expect ESPN to price the ACC Network similar to SEC Network, which at launch was around $1.30 per subscriber per month in-market and around 25 cents per subscriber per month out-of-market.
    I think this is rather ambitious if true, and for the purpose of this article let’s say ESPN can get $.90 for an in-market subscriber rate. The Big 10 was $1 and the Pac 12 at $.80.   If the SEC is at .25 in their out state markets, we’ll say the ACC can get .15.
    83% of American Households pay for TV. Cordcutting is real, but it is also a bit exaggerated. A linear cable channel will still be a viable revenue producer for another 10-15 years at least.
    Now I’m going to take a very conservative estimate, we’ll figure in a bit more cord cutting and say 75% of American households will pay for TV in 2019.
    Here is the number of households per state. 
    I believe South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia will get full carriage.
    .90 in state monthly in state carriage rate
    South Carolina 1.83 Million  x .75 x .9 = $1.23 Million
    North Carolina 3.79 Million x .75 x .9 = $2.55 Million
    Virginia 3.08 Million x .75  x .9 = $2.56 Million
    Florida, Kentucky, and Georgia could get full carriage, but I will say they get 75%. I understand Georgia Tech is not the flagship school of the state of Georgia, but there are two reasons why Georgia will get strong ACC Carriage. I’ve lived in Georgia and you can find regional ACC games all across the state. There are tons of Florida State, Clemson, and other ACC alumni in the Atlanta Metro area as well.
    Florida 7.33 Million x .75 x .75 x .90 = $3.17 Million
    Georgia 3.59 Million x .75 x .75 x .90 = $1.81 Million
    Kentucky 1.71 Million x .75 x 75 x .90 = .86 Million
    The Northeast states are a bit trickier, but please don’t suggest there isn’t a benefit. The 2 non-descript brands of Maryland and Rutgers added to the Big 10 Networks bottom line. 
    We’ll say the Northeast ACC schools can draw 50% of the cable households.
    New York 7.28 Million x .75 x .50 x .90 = $2.4 Million
    Massachusetts 2.55 Million x.75  x .50 x .90 = $.86 Million
    Pennsylvania 4.95 Million x .75 x .50 x .90 = $1.67 Million
    Notre Dame is an interesting case, as their Olympic sports will be on the ACC Network and they will get a full share of the ACC Network. Who knows what the ACC Network can show regarding Irish football, but I believe you’ll see the Irish play at least 1 football game a year on the ACC Network. We’ll call Indiana a 25% carriage state.
    Indiana 2.5 Million x .75 x .25  x .90 = $.42 Million
    That’s a total of $17.2 Million for instate monthly fees. x 12 Months – that’s $210 Million for 19.5 Million in state ACC households.
    Depending on your source the SEC Network has anywhere from from 60-80 Million subscribers. We’ll split the difference and say the SEC has 70 Million. If the ACC just gets 1/3 of the SEC subscribers, then that’s 23.1 Million subscribers. We already have 19.5 Million instate ACC Households. That’s 3.6 Million more at a .15 fee. or $.54 Million.
    That is an additional $6.5 Million to the $210 Million. So the ACC Network could earn near $217 Million in a single year. We subtract about $100 Million in operating costs. I always wonder how that’s rarely figured in when people total up conference networks. Conference networks don’t run for free. 
    That’s $117 Million, divide by 2 since ESPN takes half the profits. We’re at $58.5 Million for the ACC divided by 15 and that’s nearly $4 Million at $3.9 Million the ACC should make even in this extremely conservative estimate case. There may be some start up costs in year 1, so keep that in mind.
    If the ACC can get full get a $1 subscription fee the number grows to $4.68 Million team, and if ESPN can get the $1.30 in state fee and .25 out of state – Then we are at $315 Million which turns out to just over $7 Million per program.
    We are still at the modest 24 Million subscribers.
    You may ask if the ACC Network was going to be so profitable why wasn’t it started sooner? That’s easy… Most of ESPN carriage contracts aren’t up until the 2019 and 2020 time frame.  and cable operators still need to be convinced to add another channel. That is something that will be worked out in the next 3 years.
    Even the much maligned Pac 12 makes $1-$1.5 million, and now has reached a couple of new carriage deals.  Expect Pac 12 profits to begin to rise.
    At the end of the day, The ACC Network is going to be a significant money maker, and I expect it to be in the $4-$6 Million range with very real the potential for more."


    http://csnbbs.com/thread-786249.html

    LouC 8/3

    "Whit Babcock was on Sirius with Mark Packer a couple hours ago. They were talking about the ACC network, and he very explicitly reiterated that the deal will put the ACC on the level of B1G and SEC and separate them from the PAC and B12. Now, I'll still believe it when I see it on 2020 but he was unequivocal, and I don't think he's a guy that you would normally chalk up to be a liar or stupid. So that's encouraging.

    I do expect the Big 12 to expand and improve their deal, and the Pac to eventually get carriage and start picking up, so I don't expect there to be significant separation really or at least for long, but if we're in the B1G/SEC neighborhood we'll be ok. "

     

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