Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Ranking Conferences & ACC 3rd in TV ratings

Great article from ACC Football Rx.  It touches on a topic I have focused on repeatedly.  ACC tends to trend 3rd overall in TV ratings.  The ONLY metric that matters when it comes to TV contracts.  

The other data is very interesting, but I especially concentrate on TV ratings.  It is tough to find much data on this topic, so we document it when we can.

I have suggested that if the ACC regularly trends 3rd overall in TV ratings (and this doesn't even factor basketball).  No way should the ACC have the 5th lowest payout in TV contracts.



Ranking Conferences - 1/21/19

From Definitive Overall College Football Conference Ranking (based on data from the past 5 seasons), in which the author ranks the conferences on several objective measures, then proposes an overall ranking (you know I have to massage it a little to add some value here...)

Attendance.
Average Home Attendance
SEC77,226
Big Ten66,314
Big 1257,458
Pac-1251,064
ACC49,375
AAC30,329
MWC24,557
C-USA19,983
Sun Belt17,919
MAC15,633
80_SEC
75
70
65-B1G
60_XII
55
50-PacACC
45
40
35
30-AAC
25-MWC

Average attendance is not an ACC strength - not surprising, given how small some of the stadiums are. Even so, it's in a virtual tie with the Pac-12 and 19,000 higher than the highest G5 conference - the American (AAC).

Non-Conference (P5, non-bowl only).
Non-Conference P5 Record
Pac-120.585
Big Ten0.530
SEC0.507
ACC0.479
Big 120.400
AAC0.315
MAC0.180
MWC0.171
CUSA0.071
Sun Belt0.056
0.600-Pac
0.567
0.533-B1G
0.500-SEC
0.467-ACC
0.433
0.400-XII
0.367
0.333
0.300-AAC

Here the ACC is a little closer to the middle of the power five conferences - right behind the SEC and well ahead of the Big XII. The big surprise? The Pac-12 leads the way (possibly because they rarely play the SEC or the ACC?)

Bowl Games.
Overall Bowl Records
Sun Belt0.609
SEC0.552
Big Ten0.541
MWC0.515
Big 120.514
ACC0.500
CUSA0.458
Pac-120.450
AAC0.353
MAC0.241
0.600-SBC
0.575
0.550-SECB1G
0.525-MWC,XII
0.500-ACC
0.475
0.450-USA,Pac
0.425
0.400
0.375
0.350-AAC

Again, the ACC is comfortably in the middle in terms of bowl win%.

AP Top 25.
#Ranked, Final AP Poll
SEC27
Big Ten23
Pac-1220
ACC18
Big 1216
AAC9
MWC6
CUSA2
MAC1
Sun Belt0
27-SEC
24-B1G
21-Pac
18-ACC
15-XII
12
9-AAC
6-MWC
3-USA
0-MAC, SBC

The ACC is ahead of only the smallest P5 conference in terms of number of ranked teams in the final AP poll (and would be 5th in terms of percentage of ranked teams) - but still within the P5 range and well ahead of the G5 conferences.

Playoffs.
#Playoff Appearances
SEC6
ACC5
Big Ten3
Big 123
Pac-122
6-SEC
5-ACC
4
3-B1G,XII
2-Pac

Playoff appearances are where the ACC really starts to shine, beating out every conference except the SEC.

#Championships
SEC2
ACC2
Big Ten1
Big 120
Pac-120
2-SEC,ACC
1-B1G
0-PacXII

Likewise the ACC looks good so far in terms of national championships over the last 5 years (a fortuitous choice of date range by the OP author).

Television.
#Top10 Most-Watched
SEC38
Big Ten28
ACC15
Big 129
Pac-127
38-SEC
27-B1G
16-ACC
7-XII,
Pac

ACC football holds its own in terms of TV viewership, thank you very much!

NFL Draft.
Number of NFL Draft Picks
SEC260
ACC203
Big Ten180
Pac-12171
Big 12112
AAC66
MWC52
CUSA44
MAC36
Sun Belt19
260-SEC
240
220
200-ACC
180-B1G,Pac
160
140
120-XII
100
80
60-AAC

Even when ACC football was bad, the NFL draft was one area the league could point to - and it still is. On the other hand, the Big XII is even lower than their small size would indicate.

Final Ranking.
Overall Score/Ranking
SEC11
Big Ten19
ACC27
Pac-1231
Big 1233
AAC47
MWC47
CUSA54
SBC54
MAC59
10-SEC
15
20-B1G
25_ACC
30-Pac
35-XII
40
45-AAC,MWC
50
55-USA,SBC
*note: lower is better here.

CONCLUSION.
The ACC comes in as a solid #3 in terms of college football conference overall power ratings behind the big two (SEC, B1G). And while I suppose one could quibble with certain aspects of the OP author's methodology, it's hard to argue with the final result (with the Big XII and Pac-12 so close, does it really matter who's 4th/5th?)

One mild surprise for me at least - 6th place isn't just a virtual tie, it IS a tie between the American and the Mountain West (P7, I guess?). Those teams will give you a real game - and maybe more than you bargained for! (No surprise: C-USA, the Sun Belt, and the MAC are not all that good).


More evidence ACC is 3rd in TV ratings even though last in revenue

ACC TV ratings vs other P5 conferences

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