Saturday, July 30, 2022

Most TV viewers? Ranking the most valuable college football programs (update)


Here's another look at the average TV viewers - this time with all schools ranked together (in part one, we grouped them by conference).

RankSchool#GamesAllTop36
2Ohio St.915.833M9.132M
3Michigan814.897M7.376M
4Auburn784.468M7.197M
5Georgia794.69M7.119M
6LSU804.167M6.636M
7Notre Dame1033.839M6.236M
8Florida743.847M5.848M
9Florida St.823.312M5.589M
10Clemson903.258M5.419M
11Michigan St.793.279M5.382M
12Penn St.793.271M5.35M
13Wisconsin773.221M5.303M
14Oklahoma1013.243M5.247M
15Texas A&M703.414M5.126M
RankSchool#GamesAllTop36
16Texas882.693M4.432M
17Tennessee593.244M4.377M
18Mississippi632.76M3.886M
19Nebraska722.454M3.863M
20Oregon742.521M3.755M
21USC872.306M3.684M
22Iowa812.158M3.652M
23Miami762.139M3.62M
24Oklahoma St.941.943M3.574M
25Mississippi St.622.445M3.451M



This was posted on CSNBBS by 'NoQuarterBrigade' back in July:

Other than winning championships, I think another good statistic to look at would be total weeks ranked in the top 25. The AP poll would be good to look at here since it has been used for so long. It would clearly show who the top brands are in college football. The more a school gets ranked, the more it gets recognized. It goes a long way in my opinion.

1.Ohio State (950) total weeks
2.Michigan (887)
3.Oklahoma (877)
4.Notre Dame (849)
5.Alabama (841)
6.USC (787)
7.Texas (748)
8.Nebraska (730)
9.Penn State (665)
10.Florida (641)
11.LSU (640)
12.Georgia (629)
13.Auburn (602)
14.Tennessee (588)
15.Florida State (560)
16.UCLA (537)
17.Miami (FL) (509)
18.Texas A&M (482)
19.Clemson (477)
20.Washington (456)
21.Arkansas (427)
22.Michigan State (416)
23.Wisconsin (412)
24.Iowa (357)
25.Oregon (335)
26.Virginia Tech (311)
27.Pittsburgh (308)
28.Georgia Tech (307)
29.West Virginia (306)
30.Colorado (305)
31.Ole Miss (304)
32.Stanford (303)
33.Arizona State (291)
34.Oklahoma State (271)
35.North Carolina (262)
36.BYU (260)
37.Missouri (255)
38.TCU (243)
39.Purdue (238)
40.Baylor (221)
41.Kansas State (218)
42.Syracuse (206)
43.Mississippi State (203)
44.Houston (201)
45.California (200)
46.Maryland (193)
47.Northwestern (188)
48.South Carolina (187)



What makes a college football program a "brand"?

This was posted on CSNBBS by 'OrangeDude' back in July:

Ranking based on how programs performed in college football championship games.

What follows is a point system where the two participants both got 1 point even if a loss in that game knocked them down to 3, 4, or 5 in the Final AP Poll. 

For non-participants (not barred from the championship game) if they were ranked at #2 they got a point.  If they were ranked #3 they had to have only 1 loss to get a point.  And if they were ranked #4 they had to have zero losses to gain a point.

The results are as follows:

Alabama - 11 - SEC
Ohio State - 10 - B1G
Oklahoma - 8 - future SEC
Florida State - 7 - ACC
Clemson - 6 - ACC
Nebraska - 6 - B1G
Florida - 5 - SEC
LSU - 5 - SEC
Miami - 5 - ACC
Oregon - 5 - PAC
USC - 5 - future B1G
Auburn - 4 - SEC
Notre Dame - 4 - Independent
Georgia - 3 - SEC
Tennessee - 3 - SEC
Michigan - 2- B1G
Michigan State - 2 - B1G
Penn State - 2 - B1G
Texas - 2 - future SEC
Utah - 2 - PAC
Washington - 2 - PAC
Boise State - 1 - MWC
Cincinnati - 1 - future B12
Colorado - 1 - PAC
Oklahoma State - 1 - B12
TCU - 1 - B12
Virginia Tech - 1 - ACC

So basically there were 120 potential spots above of which 95 were actually  used (I suppose it is difficult to be ranked #4 in the Final AP Poll, not take part in the championship game and have zero losses).



ACC Brands left to be taken and assuming 12 are needed for dissolution:

From the ACC:
Florida State / 10th nationally in Revenue / 2nd in the ACC in value added
Clemson / 26th nationally in Revenue / 1st in the ACC in value added
Louisville / 15th nationally in Revenue / 7th in the ACC in value added
Miami / 29th nationally in Revenue / 5th in the ACC in value added
North Carolina / 35th nationally in Revenue / 8th in the ACC in value added
Virginia Tech / 46th nationally in Revenue / 3rd in the ACC in value added
N.C. State / 56th nationally in Revenue / 6th in the ACC in value added
Georgia Tech / 60th nationally in Revenue / 4th in the ACC in value added
Virginia / 36th nationally in Revenue / 9th in the ACC in value added
Syracuse / 59th nationally in Revenue / 10th in the ACC in value added
Pittsburgh / 45th nationally in Revenue / 11th in the ACC in value added
Boston College / 57th nationally in Revenue / 12th in the ACC in value added
Wake Forest / 61st nationally in Revenue / 13th in the ACC in value added
Duke / 33rd nationally in Revenue / 14th in the ACC in value added
*** Notre Dame is the Star brand and greatest value and counts in dissolution***

If adjusted for basketball value added:
Louisville is 1st
Florida State 2nd
Clemson 3rd
Virginia Tech 4th
North Carolina is 5th
Syracuse is 6th
Duke is 7th
N.C. State 8th
Georgia Tech 9th
Miami 10th
Virginia 11th
Pittsburgh 12th
Wake Forest 13th
Boston College is 14th









The data and College Football Conference Realignment

The list below is each program, by conference, with more than one million fans.

  • ACC – FSU, 2.7M; Duke, 2.6M; UNC, 1.9M; Boston College, 1.5M; Georgia Tech, 1.4M; Clemson, 1.5M and Miami 1.1M
  • Big 12 – Texas, 3.1M; Oklahoma, 1.7M; Kansas, 1M
  • Big Ten – Ohio State, 6.3M; Penn State, 4M; Michigan State, 2.9M; Michigan, 2.9M; Illinois, 1.7M; Wisconsin, 1.6M; Minnesota, 1.4M; Iowa, 1.3M; Nebraska, 1.2M
  • Pac 12 – UCLA, 2.7M; Arizona State, 1.5M; USC, 1.5M
  • SEC – Alabama, 4.1M; Georgia, 2.8M; LSU, 2.3M; Florida, 2.1M; Auburn, 2M; Texas A&M, 2M; Kentucky, 1.5M; Tennessee 1.3M; Missouri, 1.1M; Arkansas, 1.1M
  • Notre Dame – 3.5M



https://floridastate.forums.rivals.com/threads/this-is-a-good-indicator-of-why-we-will-be-fine-when-the-dust-settles-on-the-next-wave-of-expansion.339137/




























I am beginning by looking at how programs performed in college football championship games. But until the 2014-15 season, we haven't had a clear distinct process of identifying the top 4 programs. The first college football championship game was in the 1992-93 season. But at this point in time the Big 10 and the PAC 10 did their own thing with the Rose Bowl separate and distinct from what the other conferences were doing.

Eventually it all came together with the BCS College Football Championship game but the AP may have thought one non-participant may have been the best team that year.

What follows is a point system where the two participants both got 1 point even if a loss in that game knocked them down to 3, 4, or 5 in the Final AP Poll.

For non-participants (not barred from the championship game) if they were ranked at #2 they got a point. If they were ranked #3 they had to have only 1 loss to get a point. And if they were ranked #4 they had to have zero losses to gain a point.

The results are as follows:

Alabama - 11 - SEC
Ohio State - 10 - B1G
Oklahoma - 8 - future SEC
Florida State - 7 - ACC
Clemson - 6 - ACC
Nebraska - 6 - B1G

Florida - 5 - SEC
LSU - 5 - SEC
Miami - 5 - ACC
Oregon - 5 - PAC
USC - 5 - future B1G

Auburn - 4 - SEC
Notre Dame - 4 - Independent

Georgia - 3 - SEC
Tennessee - 3 - SEC

Michigan - 2- B1G
Michigan State - 2 - B1G
Penn State - 2 - B1G
Texas - 2 - future SEC
Utah - 2 - PAC
Washington - 2 - PAC

Boise State - 1 - MWC
Cincinnati - 1 - future B12
Colorado - 1 - PAC
Oklahoma State - 1 - B12
TCU - 1 - B12
Virginia Tech - 1 - ACC

So basically there were 120 potential spots above of which 95 were actually used (I suppose it is difficult to be ranked #4 in the Final AP Poll, not take part in the championship game and have zero losses).


This is the count of million-viewer games 2015-21 for teams not already in the SEC or B1G (or ND). And that's considering the viewer penalty Washington and Oregon take for late games.

34 Clemson
31 Florida State
28 Washington
26 Oregon
22 Miami
21 Washington State
19 Oklahoma State, Utah
18 Louisville, Stanford
16 North Carolina
15 Baylor, Colorado, Virginia Tech
14 TCU, West Virginia
13 Arizona State, Boise State
12 BYU, Cal, Pittsburgh
11 Cincinnati, NC State
10 Syracuse
9 Texas Tech, UCF, Virginia
8 Houston, USF, Wake Forest
7 Army, Boston College, Iowa State, Navy
6 Arizona, Georgia Tech, Memphis
5 Duke
4 Kansas State, SMU, Temple
3 Oregon State


Post: #1
ACC # of Games with at least 1M viewers 2013-2021
A similar exercise has been done by D1-360 and I believe Andy Staples (?) for the Athletic.

D1-360 was between 2012-2021 looking only at ACC, B12, and PAC. He eliminated Bowl Games (not surprising), all Conference Championship games, Games against the SEC, the B1G, and the four new members, Notre Dame, and Mirror Games supposedly because there is no way to determine who watched for which conference/teams but oddly he forgets the same can be said for any game within conference. Andy Staples did his from 2015-2021 eliminating the same games as well as throwing out 2020 altogether simply because some conferences chose not to participate fully.

Outside of Bowl Games, I kept everything and I recognize that gives the ACC an advantage over the B12 and PAC due to the large number of rivalry games with the SEC and having ND committed to 5 games annually.

When I get around to finishing the B12 and the PAC, still doing the 2019-2021 years for both conferences, they will have included in their totals the teams they have recently lost as well as any home, away, or neutral site games against the 5 major conferences and ND.

ACC Tier 1

Team.....#Games 1M+.....Avg #Viewers*

Clemson - 74 - 3.83M
Florida St - 66 - 3.58M
Miami - 49 - 3.03M

ACC Tier 2

Louisville - 40 - 2.67M
Virginia Tech - 36 - 3.05M
North Carolina - 36 - 2.40M
Georgia Tech - 27 - 2.69M
Pittsburgh - 27 - 2.47M

ACC the Rest

Virginia - 24 - 2.31M
Syracuse - 25 - 2.29M
NC State - 23 - 2.24M
Boston College - 21 - 2.21M
Wake Forest - 17 - 1.94M
Duke - 11 - 2.60M

Now obviously the ACC isn't going to fare well against the SEC or B1G in these numbers. And it has a built in advantage to the B12 and PAC due to its many rivalry games with the SEC, the Notre Dame commitment, and even a few B1G games (though not a lot).

But I thought I would share this first so we remember the ACC isn't as bad as some on these boards think. And hopefully someone could see if the new scheduling is impacted either positively or negatively with these numbers.


2
Florida State Seminoles

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The case for: Getting the Big Ten into the state of Florida should speak for itself. Florida State is an iconic college football program that pulled in an average 2.23 million viewers from 2015-19. With FSU, the Big Ten adds the Tampa market (No. 13), the Orlando market (No. 17), Miami (No. 18), West Palm Beach (No. 39) and Jacksonville (No. 43).



Here are the Full results. FSU falls in at 20 but there are a lot of oddities here



Another nugget from ACC Football RX

But by plotting one against the other you get a sense for where each school falls relative to the others. The black line is the average and the grey area is a larger average band to give a sense of which schools are the biggest outliers. Universities above the black line are undervalued relative to their viewers and schools below the black line are overvalued. The further the university is from the black line the more over- or undervalued it is. Schools falling outside of the grey area are significantly over- or undervalued.








 Interesting rankings.


Especially interesting when even when FSU's own fan base questions it's value but during some of the most down years at FSU since the early 70s, FSU still carries water in a significant way.  IMHO, the value rankings below severely under estimate FSU because A)  The are measuring FSU during a severe downturn over the last 30 years B)  It doesn't include TV ratings (which I find ridiculous despite his explanation of why).  Still interesting to note.


Good find by ACC Football RX who noted "The top two in the ACC are pretty clear: Clemson and Florida State. Their viewership numbers are comparable to teams like OU, Penn State, Florida, Wisconsin, and Texas.  Keep in mind, too, that the time period of this report includes the Willie Taggart years in Tallahassee (but not Mike Norvell's). Meanwhile, the Tigers were in the playoffs every single year from 2015 through 2019, winning two national titles and playing for two more. So don't be quick to conclude that Clemson is more valuable than FSU - they are both valuable, without a doubt."


​Which college football programs bring in the most TV viewers?


I logged 1,516 regular-season games with available viewership data from the five-year span of 2015-19 (I left out 2020 for obvious reasons). That includes every televised game involving Notre Dame, BYU, Army or a team from the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12, AAC or Mountain West.

The numbers next to each school indicate the average number of viewers per week from 2015–19. Streaming numbers are included when available.

Conference championship games and bowl games are not included in these numbers. Games that do not have available data were counted as zero.


  1. Ohio State (5.19M)
  2. Alabama (5.09M)
  3. Michigan (4.18M)
  4. Notre Dame (3.61M)
  5. LSU (3.22M)
  6. Auburn (3.12M)
  7. Georgia (2.91M)
  8. Oklahoma (2.90M)
  9. Clemson (2.67M)
  10. Penn State (2.55M)
  11. Florida (2.46M)
  12. Wisconsin (2.27M)
  13. Texas (2.269M)
  14. Florida State (2.23M)
  15. Michigan State (2.20M)
  16. Southern Cal (1.98M)
  17. Texas A&M (1.851M)
  18. Tennessee (1.849M)
  19. Oklahoma State (1.64M)
  20. Mississippi (1.61M)
  21. Iowa (1.57M)
  22. Nebraska (1.51M)
  23. Miami (1.503M)
  24. TCU (1.495M)
  25. Stanford (1.43M)




A couple weeks back, I took a look at which college football programs are the most valuable in this round of conference realignment.


I got a lot of positive feedback from that, and I truly believe it’s the best ranking you’ll find when it comes to evaluating each college football programs’ value to TV networks right now.


But one complaint I got from a few fans was that those ranking didn’t include TV viewership numbers. We are talking about value to TV networks, after all.


​Ranking the most valuable college football programs


In this round of conference realignment, the size of a program’s fan base is the most important factor. TV networks are building out their streaming platforms, and the more people invested in the teams they carry, the more subscriptions they can sell.


So just how much is each college football program worth? Only the suits at the TV networks can truly put a number on each program’s value. But there are a few different ways to measure each program’s value relative to each other.


No single metric tells the whole story. But I averaged out each program’s ranking in four different categories to calculate a sensible ranking of the most valuable programs. Here are the categories:


Home attendance: The number of people attending each home game is one way to measure the size and passion of a fan base. College Football News calculated the five-year attendance average for every FBS school after the 2019 season.


Market size/share: In 2011, Nate Silver calculated the number of fans of each college football team using market population and survey data. The data might look a little different if redone in 2021, but it’s as strong a methodology for determining the number of fans that I’ve seen.


Valuation: After the 2019 season, the Wall Street Journal calculated how much each college football program would be worth on the open market if it could be bought and sold like a professional sports franchise. The valuations take into account revenues and expenses, along with cash-flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections.


Social media following: It’s not perfect, but one easy way to measure the size of each fan base is to look at how many people follow each team on social media. As TV moves over to digital, it’s valuable to look at which teams have the largest followings in the digital space.


  1. Ohio State
  2. Michigan
  3. Alabama
  4. Texas
  5. Penn State
  6. Notre Dame
  7. LSU
  8. Georgia
  9. Auburn
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Florida
  12. Oklahoma
  13. Tennessee
  14. Clemson
  15. Wisconsin
  16. Nebraska
  17. South Carolina
  18. Iowa
  19. Michigan State
  20. Arkansas
  21. Florida State
  22. Virginia Tech
  23. Southern Cal
  24. Miami
  25. Washington

https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2013/08/by-the-numbers-three-part-look-at-college-football-on-espn-networks-part-3/

Millions and Millions and Millions of Fans…
ESPN’s multiplatform college football coverage reaches millions of fans. For the 2012 regular-season, ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 combined to reach more than 187,000,000 viewers for game telecasts. Combining ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2 with ESPNU’s extensive lineup and the networks averaged 2,018,000 viewers over 216 regular-season contests.

ESPN’s top 5 most-viewed regular-season games:

  • USC at Ohio State: 10,586,000 viewers (September 12, 2009)
  • Boise State at Virginia Tech: 9,888,000 viewers (September 6, 2010)
  • Florida State at Miami (Fla.): 9,120,000 viewers (September 4, 2006)
  • Miami (Fla.) at Florida State: 8,406,000 viewers (September 7, 2009)
  • Arizona at Oregon: 7,787,000 viewers (November 26, 2010)

ABC’s top 5 most-viewed regular-season games:

  • Michigan at Ohio State: 21,037,000 viewers (November 18, 2006)
  • Notre Dame at USC: 16,059,000 viewers (November 24, 2012)
  • Florida at Florida State: 14,829,000 viewers (November 30, 1996)
  • Notre Dame at USC: 14,647,000 viewers (November 25, 2006)
  • Miami at Florida State: 14,294,000 viewers (November 16, 1991)


Here's a way of looking at ACC schools that you may have never thought of before (at least, I hadn't). If we start with the number of living alumni for each school and multiply that by the average salary for graduates of that school, we get a potential pool of money from which donations, ticket purchases, etc. can be generated. Here's the chart:

ACC School#Living$AvgSal.Total potential$
North Carolina335,000$62,000$20,770,000,000
Pittsburgh331,873$58,000$19,248,634,000
Virginia Tech255,000$73,000$18,615,000,000
Syracuse258,000$71,000$18,318,000,000
Florida State360,000$50,000$18,000,000,000
Virginia230,000$77,000$17,710,000,000
Boston College182,736$93,000$16,994,448,000
Duke172,120$93,000$16,007,160,000
NC State250,000$61,000$15,250,000,000
Georgia Tech166,000$88,000$14,608,000,000
Miami188,620$67,000$12,637,540,000
Notre Dame130,000$89,000$11,570,000,000
Clemson150,000$64,000$9,600,000,000
Louisville141,000$50,944$7,183,104,000
Wake Forest72,452$75,000$5,433,900,000

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