Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Here is a revealing look at what each conference's media payouts would be if they were apportioned on the basis of all factors that go into the valuation of a schools athletic programs as per the Wall Street Journals assessment of those values.
Each of the P5 schools valuations were divided by that conferences total valuation to come up with a percentage of the total value that each school represents. Then the media revenue from the 2018-9 season was divided by that percentage to reveal what each school might have made if conference media contracts were not share and share alike.
I want you to pay close attention to the wide variations from top to bottom and in some cases long held beliefs of values in realignment might be shattered. Take each conference unto itself and try not to make cross comparisons as each has different percentages valid only within that conference. That said it should give you a strong indication of how solid conferences are based upon how tight the groupings are or are not. The PAC for instance is relatively compact in the difference between first and last, as is the ACC. The Big 10 is strong at the top and weak at the bottom. The ACC's laggards are rather obvious and each conference's drag on revenue is clearly revealed. But perhaps no conference is more top heavy with a greater divide than the Big 12.
It is also interesting to note how many of the programs that realigned in 2012 because of market size actually have little real value when branding, market reach, and other factors are considered.
SEC
Total Value of Media Contract $651,000,000 / Per School Payout: $46.5 million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $7,491,918,011
Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share
Big 10
Total Value of Media Contract $784,000,000 / Per School Payout: 56 Million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $5,389,814,258
Ohio State / 19.5% of Conference Value / $152,880,000 value of media share
Michigan / 17.2% of Conference Value / $134,848,000 value of media share
Penn State / 9.6% of Conference Value / $75,264,000 value of media share
Wisconsin / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Nebraska / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Iowa / 8.5% of Conference Value / $66,640,000 value of media share
Michigan St./ 6.6% of Conference Value / $51,744,000 value of media share
Minnesota / 5.0% of Conference Value / $39,200,000 value of media share
Indiana / 3.4% of Conference Value / $26,656,000 value of media share
Northwestern / 3.3% of Conference Value / $25,872,000 value of media share
Illinois / 2.9% of Conference Value / $22,736,000 value of media share
Maryland / 2.8% of Conference Value / $21,952,000 value of media share
Purdue / 2.5% of Conference Value / $19,600,000 value of media share
Rutgers / 1.2% of Conference Value / $9,408,000 value of media share
Big 12
Total Value of Media Contract $360,000,000 / Per School Payout: 36 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $3,537,219,087
Texas / 31.3% of Conference Value / $112,680,000 value of media share (no T3)
Oklahoma / 25.0% of Conference Value / $90,000,000 value of media share (no T3)
Kansas St. / 7.8% of Conference Value / $28,080,000 value of media share
Oklahoma St. / 7.7% of Conference Value / $27,720,000 value of media share
Texas Tech / 6.9% of Conference Value / $24,840,000 value of media share
Kansas / 5.9% of Conference Value / $21,240,000 value of media share
T.C.U. / 5.4% of Conference Value / $19,440,000 value of media share
Iowa St. / 5.5% of Conference Value / $19,080,000 value of media share
Baylor / 3.0% of Conference Value / $10,800,000 value of media share
West Virginia / 1.7% of Conference Value / $6,120,000 value of media share
ACC
Total Value of Media Contract $450,800,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $2,378,969,826
Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.
PAC 12
Total Value of Media Contract $386,400,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $3,008,222,679
Washington / 14.7% of Conference Value / $56,800,800 value of media share
Oregon / 11.6% of Conference Value / $44,822,500 value of media share
U.S.C. / 10.8% of Conference Value / $41,731,200 value of media share
U.C.L.A. / 10.0% of Conference Value / $38,640,000 value of media share
Arizona St. / 10.0% of Conference Value / $38,640,000 value of media share
Stanford / 7.7% of Conference Value / $29,752,800 value of media share
Utah / 7.1% of Conference Value / $27,434,400 value of media share
Colorado / 6.9% of Conference Value / $26,661,600 value of media share
California / 6.6% of Conference Value / $25,502,400 value of media share
Arizona / 5.5% of Conference Value / $21,252,000 value of media share
Washington St. / 4.7% of Conference Value / $18,160,800 value of media share
Oregon St. / 4.2% of Conference Value / $16,228,800 value of media share
Each of the P5 schools valuations were divided by that conferences total valuation to come up with a percentage of the total value that each school represents. Then the media revenue from the 2018-9 season was divided by that percentage to reveal what each school might have made if conference media contracts were not share and share alike.
I want you to pay close attention to the wide variations from top to bottom and in some cases long held beliefs of values in realignment might be shattered. Take each conference unto itself and try not to make cross comparisons as each has different percentages valid only within that conference. That said it should give you a strong indication of how solid conferences are based upon how tight the groupings are or are not. The PAC for instance is relatively compact in the difference between first and last, as is the ACC. The Big 10 is strong at the top and weak at the bottom. The ACC's laggards are rather obvious and each conference's drag on revenue is clearly revealed. But perhaps no conference is more top heavy with a greater divide than the Big 12.
It is also interesting to note how many of the programs that realigned in 2012 because of market size actually have little real value when branding, market reach, and other factors are considered.
SEC
Total Value of Media Contract $651,000,000 / Per School Payout: $46.5 million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $7,491,918,011
Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share
Big 10
Total Value of Media Contract $784,000,000 / Per School Payout: 56 Million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $5,389,814,258
Ohio State / 19.5% of Conference Value / $152,880,000 value of media share
Michigan / 17.2% of Conference Value / $134,848,000 value of media share
Penn State / 9.6% of Conference Value / $75,264,000 value of media share
Wisconsin / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Nebraska / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Iowa / 8.5% of Conference Value / $66,640,000 value of media share
Michigan St./ 6.6% of Conference Value / $51,744,000 value of media share
Minnesota / 5.0% of Conference Value / $39,200,000 value of media share
Indiana / 3.4% of Conference Value / $26,656,000 value of media share
Northwestern / 3.3% of Conference Value / $25,872,000 value of media share
Illinois / 2.9% of Conference Value / $22,736,000 value of media share
Maryland / 2.8% of Conference Value / $21,952,000 value of media share
Purdue / 2.5% of Conference Value / $19,600,000 value of media share
Rutgers / 1.2% of Conference Value / $9,408,000 value of media share
Big 12
Total Value of Media Contract $360,000,000 / Per School Payout: 36 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $3,537,219,087
Texas / 31.3% of Conference Value / $112,680,000 value of media share (no T3)
Oklahoma / 25.0% of Conference Value / $90,000,000 value of media share (no T3)
Kansas St. / 7.8% of Conference Value / $28,080,000 value of media share
Oklahoma St. / 7.7% of Conference Value / $27,720,000 value of media share
Texas Tech / 6.9% of Conference Value / $24,840,000 value of media share
Kansas / 5.9% of Conference Value / $21,240,000 value of media share
T.C.U. / 5.4% of Conference Value / $19,440,000 value of media share
Iowa St. / 5.5% of Conference Value / $19,080,000 value of media share
Baylor / 3.0% of Conference Value / $10,800,000 value of media share
West Virginia / 1.7% of Conference Value / $6,120,000 value of media share
ACC
Total Value of Media Contract $450,800,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $2,378,969,826
Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.
PAC 12
Total Value of Media Contract $386,400,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $3,008,222,679
Washington / 14.7% of Conference Value / $56,800,800 value of media share
Oregon / 11.6% of Conference Value / $44,822,500 value of media share
U.S.C. / 10.8% of Conference Value / $41,731,200 value of media share
U.C.L.A. / 10.0% of Conference Value / $38,640,000 value of media share
Arizona St. / 10.0% of Conference Value / $38,640,000 value of media share
Stanford / 7.7% of Conference Value / $29,752,800 value of media share
Utah / 7.1% of Conference Value / $27,434,400 value of media share
Colorado / 6.9% of Conference Value / $26,661,600 value of media share
California / 6.6% of Conference Value / $25,502,400 value of media share
Arizona / 5.5% of Conference Value / $21,252,000 value of media share
Washington St. / 4.7% of Conference Value / $18,160,800 value of media share
Oregon St. / 4.2% of Conference Value / $16,228,800 value of media share
The Wall Street Journal valuation modeling above is strictly for football...the WSJ does the identical analysis for basketball. Per the WSJ valuations, basketball adds another 40% value to the ACC schools. Unlike the other power conferences, basketball does make a difference when discussing "profitability" or "free cash flow" for ACC athletic programs.
Some oddities about WSJ valuations: Louisville basketball valuation ($320M) is nearly twice its football valuation ($176M); and Syracuse basketball valuation ($154M) is higher than its football valuation ($121M). If these valuations are accurate, then Louisville and Syracuse should have remained in the Big East and focused more on basketball...LOL
If WSJ valuations are to be believed as a proxy for media rights generation, then the accurate proportions would be
LOU 0.50 13.3%
CU 0.35 9.5%
FSU 0.34 9.1%
VT 0.32 8.7%
UNC 0.30 8.0%
SYR 0.28 7.4%
DU 0.26 7.0%
NCS 0.24 6.6%
GT 0.24 6.4%
MIA 0.23 6.2%
UVA 0.21 5.8%
PITT 0.20 5.5%
BC 0.11 3.0%
WF 0.11 3.0%
ND 0.01 0.4%
3.72 100.0%
The second column has the combined (football and basketball) WSJ valuation in billions of US$. Notre Dame's valuation is strictly the WSJ's basketball-only data.
Within the ACC, the generation of media rights payouts has little correlation to the WSJ valuation modeling. Clemson, Florida State and Miami are the bell cows that deliver media rights payouts (via viewership). To a lesser extent, Virginia Tech and Louisville are also above average contributors to the current media rights payouts.
No comments:
Post a Comment