Friday, July 8, 2022

Rank the attractiveness of non B1G and SEC schools in the P5

 




https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2022/07/does-accpac10-make-sense.html


Admittedly, there are issues with this data. #1, it's old. #2, it makes no attempt to adjust for the value of the conference itself. All that said, it's still useful, so let's use it...

Top 10Est. TV Value
Washington$440,821,919
Oregon$348,920,032
Arizona St$300,826,000
Clemson$298,051,865
Florida State$289,776,745
Virginia Tech$278,315,358
Stanford$232,872,852
Georgia Tech$215,013,855
Utah$213,586,437
Colorado$208,242,792
AVERAGE$282,642,786
Pac-10$238,019,449
ACC$169,926,416

What this tells me is that the Top 10 most valuable brands are worth far more than the ACC, and significantly more than the Pac-12 alone. How does that compare to the "P2"?

GroupEst. TV ValueTV$ per team
SEC+OUT$592,685,590$37,042,849
B1G+USCLA$376,115,153$23,507,197
ACC/Pac Top10$282,642,786$28,264,279
Pac-10(as-is)$238,019,449$23,801,945
Big XII (as-is)$148,266,960$12,355,580






https://csnbbs.com/thread-947488-page-4.html

This is a basic but often underrated point.

Even compared to the public schools in the other P5 leagues, the Big Ten schools are massive.

11 out of the 14 Big Ten schools have enrollment sizes of over 40,000.

In contrast, only 3 of the current 14 SEC schools meet that mark. They'll have a fourth when Texas joins.

Only 1 ACC school (Florida State) has over 40,000 enrollment.

The Pac-12 has 5 schools that meet that metric.

The new Big 12 will have 4 schools that meet that mark (with 3 of them being the new members of UCF, Cincinnati and Houston).

When you add in the fact that Big Ten grads have a higher propensity to move out-of-state along with simply having a lot more of them, there's a particularly noticeable Big Ten diaspora across the country.

As applied to how this impacts realignment and TV values, I think the Big Ten has a touch less intensity of fandom on average within its home footprint compared to the SEC, but where the Big Ten makes up for it is that it has a more national distribution of alums and fans outside of its home region (particularly in large metro markets).


Rank the attractiveness of non B1G and SEC schools in the P5

There are 39 teams in the ACC (including Notre Dame), B12 (post Oklahoma/Texas) and P12. If there were some type of breakaway, How how would you rate these schools in terms of attractiveness? Markets/tradition/football/basketball/overall athletics/tv ratings/academics /alumni base all play a factor. I’m sure someone will rank all 39, but my top choices would be

1. Notre Dame
2. USC
3. North Carolina
4. Clemson
5. Virginia
6. Florida St
7. UCLA
8. Oregon
9. Duke
10. Kansas

Pretty confident in Top 6, and I included Duke/Kansas up there for basketball purposes. Not sure where to put the 2 P12 schools I have there along with Stanford/Cal/Washington. Interested to hear others thoughts.

A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment

Here is a revealing look at what each conference's media payouts would be if they were apportioned on the basis of all factors that go into the valuation of a schools athletic programs as per the Wall Street Journals assessment of those values.

Each of the P5 schools valuations were divided by that conferences total valuation to come up with a percentage of the total value that each school represents. Then the media revenue from the 2018-9 season was divided by that percentage to reveal what each school might have made if conference media contracts were not share and share alike.

I want you to pay close attention to the wide variations from top to bottom and in some cases long held beliefs of values in realignment might be shattered. Take each conference unto itself and try not to make cross comparisons as each has different percentages valid only within that conference. That said it should give you a strong indication of how solid conferences are based upon how tight the groupings are or are not. The PAC for instance is relatively compact in the difference between first and last, as is the ACC. The Big 10 is strong at the top and weak at the bottom. The ACC's laggards are rather obvious and each conference's drag on revenue is clearly revealed. But perhaps no conference is more top heavy with a greater divide than the Big 12.

It is also interesting to note how many of the programs that realigned in 2012 because of market size actually have little real value when branding, market reach, and other factors are considered.

SEC
Total Value of Media Contract $651,000,000 / Per School Payout: $46.5 million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $7,491,918,011

Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share


Big 10
Total Value of Media Contract $784,000,000 / Per School Payout: 56 Million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $5,389,814,258

Ohio State / 19.5% of Conference Value / $152,880,000 value of media share
Michigan / 17.2% of Conference Value / $134,848,000 value of media share
Penn State / 9.6% of Conference Value / $75,264,000 value of media share
Wisconsin / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Nebraska / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Iowa / 8.5% of Conference Value / $66,640,000 value of media share
Michigan St./ 6.6% of Conference Value / $51,744,000 value of media share
Minnesota / 5.0% of Conference Value / $39,200,000 value of media share
Indiana / 3.4% of Conference Value / $26,656,000 value of media share
Northwestern / 3.3% of Conference Value / $25,872,000 value of media share
Illinois / 2.9% of Conference Value / $22,736,000 value of media share
Maryland / 2.8% of Conference Value / $21,952,000 value of media share
Purdue / 2.5% of Conference Value / $19,600,000 value of media share
Rutgers / 1.2% of Conference Value / $9,408,000 value of media share

ACC
Total Value of Media Contract $450,800,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $2,378,969,826

Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.

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