The 2017 Blue-Chip Ratio

https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio

It boils down to teams that sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars, over the previous four recruiting classes. That’s an exclusive club, usually consisting of the top 10 percent of FBS programs. All of the national champs over the last decade-plus have accomplished it, and often, the team taking home the trophy has signed many more elite players.
Clemson took home the title in 2016 after signing 52 percent blue chips in the 2013-16 classes. In 2015, it was Alabama with a 77 percent mark. In 2014, it was Ohio State at 68 percent. In 2013, it was Florida State at 53. And on and on.

This year, in order, it is Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Florida State, Georgia, USC, Michigan, Auburn, Clemson, and Notre Dame.

These teams made the Blue-Chip Ratio cut

Team	Blue-Chip Ratio
Team	Blue-Chip Ratio
Alabama	80%
Ohio State	71%
LSU	65%
Florida State	65%
Georgia	63%
USC	63%
Michigan	61%
Auburn	59%
Clemson	56%
Notre Dame	56%

That’s it. Ten teams. There are no real surprises; it’s all bluebloods. This year features the lowest number of teams meeting the 50 percent threshold since I began tracking. Usually there are two or three more.

• Alabama’s 80 percent is the highest I’ve seen since I began publishing this piece. But it’s not a surprise when Nick Saban is literally convincing top-100 players to grayshirt.
• Ohio State is a a clear No. 2, six percentage points ahead of everyone else, but still nine behind the Tide.
• Though they have had different levels of success of late, due to coaching, LSU and Florida State are typically the teams mentioned after the Tide and Buckeyes when the discussion of the most impressive roster comes up.
• Kirby Smart inherited a good Georgia roster from Mark Richt, but his first two classes are humming at 74 percent, while Richt’s final two were at 53. It’s not yet known if Smart can coach, but Georgia’s talent is being upgraded.
• Perhaps the only surprise of the 10 is Notre Dame, and I’ll be interested to see how their talented upperclassmen perform this season. The Irish went 4-8 in 2016, but were one of the least lucky teams in the country.

There’s not a team on the list I believe would enter a four-team tournament without a shot to bring home the goods.
What sort of odds would you want to bet against the eventual national champ coming from this list? I asked some oddsmakers that question.

All 10 were in the club last year, too. So were UCLA, Texas A&M, and Texas

They all dropped out as the data point of the 2013 recruiting class left, replaced with less spectacular 2017 signees.
On a conference basis, it breaks down as follows: SEC (four), ACC (two), Big Ten (two), Pac-12 (one), and independent (one). The Big 12 does not have a team on the list, but we’ll get to that in a minute.
Regionally, over half of the list comes from the deep South. The Southeast produces the most talent nationally, by far.

Blue-Chip Ratio risers

Team	2014	2017	Net
Team	2014	2017	Net
Penn State	21%	41%	20%
Arizona State	12%	28%	16%
Clemson	42%	56%	14%
Georgia	51%	63%	12%
Michigan State	16%	26%	10%
Florida State	56%	65%	9%
Washington	22%	30%	8%
Tennessee	36%	43%	7%
Maryland	13%	20%	7%
Ole Miss	25%	32%	7%
Alabama	73%	80%	7%
Michigan	55%	61%	6%
TCU	10%	16%	6%
Auburn	53%	59%	6%