Blue Chip Percentages and recruiting rankings....

http://floridastate.247sports.com/Board/36/Contents/Israel-Mukuamu-discusses-his-Top-4-53429431

pabaseball

If you look back at FSU's relative peaks and valleys, a lot of it can be traced to FSU's one "bad" class under Fisher in 2013.
Recruiting class year / Class rank / F/+ rank (year 3)
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2010 / 7 / 12 (Orange Bowl win)
2011 / 2 / 1 (National Champion)
2012 / 3 / 15 (college football playoffs semifinal loss)
2013 / 11 / 12 (Peach Bowl loss)
2014 / 4 / 9 (Orange Bowl win)
2015 / 3 / TBD
2016 / 2 / TBD
2017 / 6 / TBD
You can see FSU's worst stretch was in the two non-freshman/non-senior seasons of the Noles' worst class. 2014 had a high-ranking, but it was based a LOT on size (29 signees, with an average just *barely* over 90).
Now we're headed back into a year similar to what 2013 was, with two classes in their "primes" who were in the top 3 in the country.
I don't fault Jimbo for this, but the reality is, programs that win titles get boosts, and FSU hasn't won the most recent ones, meaning teams like Clemson and Ohio State are in the midst of up-cycles. Of course, we outrecruited them for the years that are *currently* in their primes, so we better grab some momentum back now. At least so far, winning with this level of talent looks like our most likely route to grabbing a Natty and therefore reaping the recruiting rewards one and two cycles down the line from now.......which will allow us to "rinse and repeat" with this process.
If we don't.......well, the program won't fall apart. But there isn't an obvious way for FSU to jump back into the upper, upper echelon of recruiters without getting fairly lucky on a mildly lower-ranked class or two.
And finally......there aren't any individual recruits I don't like us signing that Jimbo's gone after. But let's not also become ostriches to the situation and become like Miami fans, hailing every 3-star recruit as "underrated." When you can grab nothing BUT 4-stars and choose a select handful of 3-stars, it's believable to me that our coaches actually like every single one of those guys as if they were 4-stars or better. But, when it starts half your recruits -- and when we *know* we're missing out on a bunch of 4-star guys our coaches clearly preferred......then we need to be honest that this class is less than the "elite of the elite."
Just by percentages, comparing the years:
2011: (16 4/5-stars, 13 3-and-below stars) -- 57% blue chip
2012: (14 4/5-stars, 5 3-and-below stars) -- 74%
2013: (10 4/5-stars, 12 3-and-below stars) -- 45%
2014: (16 4/5-stars, 13 3-and-below stars) -- 57%
2015: (14 4/5-stars, 6 3-and-below stars) -- 70%
2016: (18 4/5-stars, 7 3-and-below stars) -- 72%
2017: (12 4/5-stars, 12 3-and-below stars) -- 50%
2018: (7 4/5-stars, 5 3-and-below stars) -- 58%
Maybe FSU's percentage will shoot back up with its traditional strong finishes. I'm positive Jimbo *will* catch a few really big fish (less sure he'll boost the BC% significantly). But i think it's clear we need another winning cycle on the field sooner rather than later to avoid having to hit on a bunch of projects and long(er)-shots down the line.