Tuesday, April 18, 2017

National Title Odds Update

David Payne Purdum‏Verified account @DavidPurdum 21 hours ago
Odds to win college football national title :
Alabama 7/2
FSU 7/1
Ohio St 7/1
USC 7/1
OU 10/1
Mich 12/1
Louisville 15/1
LSU 15/1
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3 comments:

  1. Hokie MarkApril 18, 2017 at 11:47 AM

    If probability is (odds of winning)/(sum of both odds), then
    Alabama: 2/(7+2) = 2/9 = 22%
    FSU, OSU, USC: 1/9 = 11% each
    Odds of one of those 4 teams winning it all: 22%+(3*11%)=55%
    So there is better than 50% chance either Alabama, FSU, Ohio State or USC wins it all? Yeah, sounds about right...

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  2. Hokie MarkApril 18, 2017 at 1:16 PM

    I'm so dumb... FSU/OSU/USC are 1/8 = 12.5% each.
    The top 4 combined are therefore 59.5%.
    Wow! Everyone else combines is only 40.5%?

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    Replies
    1. ZApril 19, 2017 at 6:43 AM

      I occasionally post about this topic here that basically states, if you don't have north of 50% (or 60%, dont' remember) blue chip ration, you are not winning a national title.

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