2016 Blue Chip Ratio

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/8/18/12530108/ncaa-football-best-recruiters-2016

"In 2014, I wrote about how signing more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star recruits in the previous four recruiting classes has been a prerequisite to winning the national title over the last decade-plus. I called this the Blue-Chip Ratio."

"The national champion will almost certainly be from this group:

The 13 teams to reach the blue-chip threshold this year are Alabama, USC, Ohio State, LSU, Notre Dame, Florida State, Michigan, Auburn, UCLA, Texas A&M, Georgia, Clemson, and Texas.

This list includes schools that have won 12 of the last 14 national championships (Florida won the other two and met the mark at the time; it’s at 39 percent for 2016 after a recent coaching change). It also includes eight other national title game appearances in that span."

 

Blue Chip Ratio 2016

 

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Ratio	Team	Conference
0.77	Alabama	SEC
0.7	USC	Pac-12
0.7	Ohio State	Big Ten
0.66	LSU	SEC
0.63	Notre Dame	Independent
0.6	Florida State	ACC
0.59	Michigan	Big Ten
0.57	Auburn	SEC
0.55	UCLA	Pac-12
0.53	Texas A&M	SEC
0.52	Georgia	SEC
0.52	Clemson	ACC
0.5	Texas	Big XII
0.44	Tennessee	SEC
0.39	Florida	SEC
0.38	Ole Miss	SEC
0.38	Miami	ACC
0.36	Oklahoma	Big XII
0.34	Penn State	Big Ten
0.33	Oregon	Pac-12
0.33	Stanford	Pac-12
0.3	South Carolina	SEC
0.28	Michigan State	Big Ten
0.26	Washington	Pac-12
0.23	Arkansas	SEC

"The ACC

The ACC has two title contenders in Clemson and Florida State, plus a talented Louisville that many have in the top 20. And it made four hires that were widely praised: Justin Fuente at Virginia Tech, Mark Richt at Miami, Dino Babers at Syracuse and Bronco Mendenhall at Virginia.

The data shows how much work must be done for those coaches to reach their top goals. Miami is multiple elite classes away from having enough talent to contend for a national title. Virginia Tech’s talent level has slipped precipitously in recent years; Frank Beamer and Co. might have been squandering talent a few years ago, but the Hokies simply haven’t had many elite signees to waste in recent years.

I also find it interesting that the Atlantic Division has the ACC’s two best and three worst recruiters while the Coastal teams are clustered in the middle."