Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Great article from ACC Football RX and insight from Lou.

I have long said this, just not as eloquently.  The money didn't come from Syracuse and Pitt....it was the time.

It also was due to the undervaluing of the ACC (it was a weak contract to start with) as well as the market showed an increase in sports programming.

Sadly, the ACC consistently argues it was these schools who added that value.  Not accurate.  ACC far too often does not accurately define who adds value to the conference.



http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2016/03/time-value-of-tv-contracts.html


"Remember former guest writer and always FSU fan Lou_C? Lou has an interesting take on the difference between the ACC and SEC TV contracts.
...At some point, I'm afraid the only real game-changer financially that is at our disposal is extending the rights deal. Presumably, that would be part of a deal for a network, but it doesn't necessarily have to be. Remember, along with the SEC network deal, the SEC extended their deal to 2035. That can not be ignored...a big part of that chunk they are now getting is based on extending their deal...

Remember what the 2010 ACC TV deal was providing before Syracuse and Pitt were added? $13M per school per year average. The addition of Syracuse and Pitt pushed the payment up to like $17M, and the partial addition of ND (and the GOR) have pushed it to $20M average.

No disrespect to anyone, but does anyone even remotely think that Syracuse+Pitt raised the value of the ACC 30%, or throwing in ND basketball, increased the value by 50%? So that they not only paid for their own shares, but that much of an increase for everyone else? That simply defies credulity.

No, the biggest reason for the increase is that the ACC extended their deal by FOUR YEARS. That's what ESPN was mostly paying for...locking up additional years. It's always, always in the best interest of the networks to lock of properties for as long as possible to keep them off the open market. How much of the ACC's $7m increase was based off that extension? My guess is that realistically, probably $4-5M per school. It's really hard to imagine that SU + Pitt would have done a lot more than just hold onto the average per team value.

So if the ACC picked up $4M per school for extending four years, how much of the SEC's contract is sweetened by extending their contract a full TEN YEARS? The SEC contract is great, and their payouts are great, but let's not forget there is a lot more behind it than a bunch of crazy SEC fans demanding their network. They got paid big time for extending their contract big time, it's now the longest current rights deal in sports.

The B1G contract will come up soon, and will probably run to somewhere in the early 30s I'm guessing. The SEC contract runs through 2035. Soon, the ACC will know what it's up against. I expect then that we'll see a new ACC-ESPN deal, probably including a network, extended out to 2036 or so. I don't think it would be totally crazy to see it be closer to the SEC TV payments than people might expect (although definitely behind). Because locking yourself up for an additional ten years is worth a lot. It just is.
__________

Well, does Lou know what he's talking about? Sure - it's called "Present Worth of Arithmetic Gradient Series". Let's do a very simple math exercise...

Imagine a TV contract much like the ACC's which pays an average of $20 million per year per team, started in 2012, and runs through 2026, increasing payouts by $1 million per team each year. Now, extend that contract 9 more years...
Year$M
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617
201718
201819
201920
202021
202122
202223
202324
202425
202526
202627
Average: $20M
Year$M
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617
201718
201819
201920
202021
202122
202223
202324
202425
202526
202627
202728
202829
202930
203031
203132
203233
203334
203435
203536
Average: $24.5M
VOILA! An increase of $4.5 million per year (on average) just for extending the contact.
I guess that Lou guy knows a thing or two!

*** see also Present Worth of Arithmetic Gradient Series ***"

No comments:

Post a Comment